Friday, July 8, 2011

Possible forward targets

Although Ken Holland has said several times that he thinks the roster is more or less set except for the backup goalie, coach Mike Babcock mentioned wanting a top 6 forward, presumably one who is projected to score more than the 40-50 point range that the 5 guys whop will be rotating in and out of the top 6 will score.

Who's out there?

Buffalo is currently $350k under the cap and has to sign at minimum a 7th defenseman and a backup goalie.  Someone is going to go.  They would probably love to move Jason Pominville's $5.3 mil cap hit (for 66 goals over the last 3 seasons) but he has a partial no trade clause allowing him to name 8 teams where he won't go.  If those 8 teams are the ones that have cap space, then he's unmovable.  That leaves star winger Tomas Vanek, and a trio of forwards in Drew Stafford, Derek Roy, and Brad Boyes.  They would probably prefer not to move Vanek, but his salary is the only one high enough to move and take a player making much money in return.  If they trade one of the other three, all of whom have a $4 million cap hit, they will likely have to either take back a low paid grinder/3rd pair defenseman, a player still on his entry level deal, or a package of picks and/or prospects.

I'm not sure the Wings have enough that they would be willing to trade to get Vanek, as some team will likely give up several good prospects and/or picks plus a roster player or two to get him.  Since the lockout, that's not Ken Holland's style.  Roy, Stafford, and Boyes would be interesting acquisitions, however.

 Boyes would be the biggest risk of the group, and might only require the Wings to send a mid level prospect and a lower draft pick to get.  The former 40 goal scorer has struggled the last two seasons since signing his big contract.  Detroit's culture has helped other players regain their form however, and could be the cure Boyes is looking for.  Roy is coming off an injury plagues season where he only played in 35 games, but his previous 3 seasons saw him pot 32, 28, and 26 goals.  Stafford is coming off a breakout season that saw him score 31 goals.  As the youngest member of the 44 million trio, he's the most intriguing, but like Vanek could cost more than the Wings are willing to give up for a player who has had one big season that came in a contract year.

Washington is also going to have to move someone in order to get under the cap.  As of now, they are actually $1.8 million over the cap.  It's been speculated that they will move Alexander Semin, who has a $6.7 million cap hit and us a unrestricted free agent next summer.  He would certainly bring in the most in return, likely a combination of 3 or 4 high picks and top prospects.  Like Vanek, I don't see Holland making that trade.  Semin is likely going to want to break the bank next summer after signing a one year deal last summer in his restricted free agent year.  It's unlikely that the Wings will trade away several potential NHL players for what could be a one year rental.

If the Caps like Semin (insert joke here) enough to keep him, they could free up enough cap space by moving one or two of Eric Fehr, former Wing Mike Knuble, or Jason Chimera, plus one of Tom "Defense, What's That?" Poti, or Jeff Schultz.  The defenseman they move will be replaced int he lineup by restricted free agent Karl Alzner, and the forward would be replaced by a rookie or low salary veteran.  Knuble is the only player in that group that could help the Wings.  He's 39 and likely in his last season, but he's coming off his 9th straight season where he scored 20+ goals, and has scored 53 goals the last 2 seasons with Washington.

Other forwards who could be moved that may help the Wings include Pittsburgh's Chris Kunitz and New Jersey's  David Clarkson.  Clarkson would be brought in to provide muscle, not scoring, so I'm not sure that's a move they'd make.

The majority of their moves would require a second trade, most like Jiri Hudler being moved for a draft pick or a prospect.  It's unlikely Detroit would get value in return, but if you look at it as part of the same trade, it could be worth it.

Who did I miss?  Would you be willing to bring back an aging Mike Knuble for one last Cup run with his original team?  Would you be willing to take on a reclamation project in Boyes or risk Stafford not living up to his contract for the next four years?

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