Now that the Wings have finished their roster, other than a small chance at trading for a forward capable of scoring 60+ points if the right situation presents itself, it's time for some predictions for the 2011-12 season.
Jiri Hudler will score at least 50 points. He managed 37 last season despite playing terrible, bouncing around the lines, spending part of the time playing with two grinders, and being a healthy scratch. An improved mental outlook and consistent ice time should boost him back up to the 50+ point plateau.
Pavel Datsyuk will win the Selke. Not much of a stretch here, as the biggest reason he didn't win last year is because he missed so many games. Datsyuk is the premier two way center in the NHL, and the only reason he's not one of the NHL's poster boys is that he's Russian and not flashy like Ovechkin.
Half of the Wings fan base will insist that Hudler is terrible, even while he's scoring his 50+ points. It doesn't matter what some players do, fans don't like them. Hudler does have limitations with his smurf-like stature and lack of speed, but he does play hard when he's on the game and his size doesn't prevent him from going into the hard areas of the ice. Granted, he's not very effective along the boards, but he does try.
Mike Babcock will give the Death Stare 682 times. In the first week. And at least one prospect will be scared by it.
Something will be said about the Wings' age at least 3 times in every national broadcast featuring them. Of course, the fact that Lidstrom is the only defenseman over the age of 32, and the majority of their forwards are in or are just coming into their prime years will be completely ignored. But Mike millbury, Pierre Maguire, and Barry Melrose have never let facts get int he way when it's time to predict the Wings' demise, why start now?
The Wings will make a trade to bring in an upgrade at at least one position by the trade deadline. This is the first time since the cap was implemented where the Wings haven't gone into the season at or near the cap. Some of the money needs to be set aside to bring back Kronwall, Stuart, Kindl, and their other pending free agents and sign Lidstrom's replacement, but Holland will have money to play with.
Brendan Smith will play in 20 games or so. If he plays well, fans, and possible Babcock, will say that he needs to be up full time RIGHT NOW! If he plays well, fans will wonder how he was rated so highly. Either way he will be sent back to Grand Rapids and will be a full time Wing in the '12-'13 season.
Filppula will have a breakout year and hit the 60 point mark. No, we really mean it this time. Seriously. OK, probably not, but it's getting to be a rite of the off season to predict a big year from the Finn. Either way, 40 points and solid 2-way play makes him a valuable, and often under-appreciated, member of the team.
There will be 6,294 "they should trade Hudler/Filppula/Bertuzzi" and 649 "Homer should retire" threads on each message board.
Detroit will win the Cup if they stay healthy. San Jose will be exposed as not as good as people think they are after trading so many players to bring in Havlat and Burns, the Blackhawks and Kings won't have the depth, and the Canucks will choke a round earlier than they did this past playoff.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Chris Osgood, Hall of Famer?
Now that it looks like Chris Osgood is officially ending his career as a professional hockey player, the debate on his worthiness for the Hall of Fame will begin in earnest with people coming down firmly on both sides of the issue.
Why he shouldn't be in the Hall:
He was never one of the three best goaltenders in the league, at least not for an extended period of time. He was overshadowed by goalies like Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, Ryan Miller, and others. Other than a couple of Jennings awards, which is a team award, he never won an individual award, and was only named to an All Star team three times in his career. He also spent most of his career playing for elite teams in Detroit where he was more of a passenger than a driving force in their success. Simply put, he doesn't pass the eye test, and the Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the best of the best. After all it's the Hall of FAME not the Hall of Really Good.
Why he should be in the Hall:
Most goalies in the Hall of Fame played on great teams, and all of them spent at least a good chunk of their career on good teams. Goalies simply don't put up wins or good numbers consistently if they play on bad teams. 401 wins, 50 shutouts, a 2.58 GAA, and a .905 save % compares favorably to the other goalies in the Hall. He didn't have the name of some of the other players like Hasek and Roy, but Osgood beat Roy and stepped in for Hasek when his game fell apart and outperformed him.
Too many people remember Osgood as the rookie crying in the locker room after the Sharks knocked the Wings out of the playoffs, and the goals from center ice. Not enough people remember the way that he always came back and upped his play after a bad goal or a bad game. We talk about mental toughness a lot, this guys struggles in the playoffs because he doesn't have it, this guy comes up big because he does have it. Osgood had it. In 129 playoff games, he posted a 2.09 GAA, .916 save % and shutout 15 teams. That's a better GAA and shutout per game ratio than Roy had, and compares to Hasek Brodeur, the three best goalies of Osgood's era. Individual awards are often won partly by reputation, and it's no shame to be the 4th best goalie over the course of your career when you're behind those players.
Was Steve Yzerman's accomplishments diminished because he was behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux most of his career? Would he have had the success and accolades that came later in his career if the trade with Ottawa had gone through? Of course not, and Osgood shouldn't be knocked down because he played on good teams. In both the '08 and '09 playoffs, Osgood was consistently one of the best players on the ice for both teams.
The argument that he doesn't meet the standards that the Hall should have doesn't hold water either. Other players who don't meet the eyeball test and who were carried by great teams (Glenn Anderson) and didn't win any individual awards (Dino Ciccarelli) have made it.
Osgood's numbers and accomplishments compare favorable to the people already in it. He will join them some day.
Why he shouldn't be in the Hall:
He was never one of the three best goaltenders in the league, at least not for an extended period of time. He was overshadowed by goalies like Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, Ryan Miller, and others. Other than a couple of Jennings awards, which is a team award, he never won an individual award, and was only named to an All Star team three times in his career. He also spent most of his career playing for elite teams in Detroit where he was more of a passenger than a driving force in their success. Simply put, he doesn't pass the eye test, and the Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the best of the best. After all it's the Hall of FAME not the Hall of Really Good.
Why he should be in the Hall:
Most goalies in the Hall of Fame played on great teams, and all of them spent at least a good chunk of their career on good teams. Goalies simply don't put up wins or good numbers consistently if they play on bad teams. 401 wins, 50 shutouts, a 2.58 GAA, and a .905 save % compares favorably to the other goalies in the Hall. He didn't have the name of some of the other players like Hasek and Roy, but Osgood beat Roy and stepped in for Hasek when his game fell apart and outperformed him.
Too many people remember Osgood as the rookie crying in the locker room after the Sharks knocked the Wings out of the playoffs, and the goals from center ice. Not enough people remember the way that he always came back and upped his play after a bad goal or a bad game. We talk about mental toughness a lot, this guys struggles in the playoffs because he doesn't have it, this guy comes up big because he does have it. Osgood had it. In 129 playoff games, he posted a 2.09 GAA, .916 save % and shutout 15 teams. That's a better GAA and shutout per game ratio than Roy had, and compares to Hasek Brodeur, the three best goalies of Osgood's era. Individual awards are often won partly by reputation, and it's no shame to be the 4th best goalie over the course of your career when you're behind those players.
Was Steve Yzerman's accomplishments diminished because he was behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux most of his career? Would he have had the success and accolades that came later in his career if the trade with Ottawa had gone through? Of course not, and Osgood shouldn't be knocked down because he played on good teams. In both the '08 and '09 playoffs, Osgood was consistently one of the best players on the ice for both teams.
The argument that he doesn't meet the standards that the Hall should have doesn't hold water either. Other players who don't meet the eyeball test and who were carried by great teams (Glenn Anderson) and didn't win any individual awards (Dino Ciccarelli) have made it.
Osgood's numbers and accomplishments compare favorable to the people already in it. He will join them some day.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Who got better?
The Wings have basically brought back their team from last season, with the exception of Brian Rafalski (retired) Ruslan Salei (free agent) Mike Modano (free agent, possible retired) and the possible retirements of Kris Draper and Chris Osgood. They will be bringing in free agent defensemen Ian White and Mike Commodore and rookie forwards Jan Mursak and Cory Emmerton, and possibly a free agent goaltender to back up Jimmy Howard. All of these are fairly boring, low key moves for fans remembering players like Brett Hull, Chris Chelios, and Dominik Hasek coming to Detroit.
Several other Western Conference teams have had more exiting offseasons, bringing in, and in some cases shipping out, big names. Does that mean that they're better teams, or that better means that they passed the Wings? That remains to be seen. Thanks to capgeek.com for the salaries.
San Jose:
Gained: Martin Havlat, Brett Burns, Jim Vandermeer,
Lost: Devin Setoguchi, Dany Heatley, Ian White, Ben Eager, Jamal Mayers, Scott Nichol, Kent Huskins, Niclas Wallin, Kyle Wellwood (still unsigned)
Vandermeer for Huskins is basically a wash. Burns for White is an upgrade, assuming Burns concussion issues don't return. How big of an upgrade will depend on Burns health and how White performs playing for Detroit. Havlat for Heatley and Setoguchi, losing two top six forwards to get one back, is a big downgrade, at least in the regular season.
The Sharks are losing 74 goals from last year, including two forwards who were regulars on the penalty kill in Mayers and Nichol. The players they brought in scored 41 between them. There will be at least 2 other forwards added, and they have almost $5.6 million left in cap room. With couture replacing Setoguchi in the top six, the bottom six is weaker, and in the playoffs a team's third and fourth lines are often the difference in a series.
A large chunk of that will need to be set aside for raises that winger Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns will likely command this year when they become free agents. The transactions between the Sharks and Wild did land them a solid scoring winger in Havlat and a young up and coming defenseman in Burns, not to mention cap room they got from the Heatley for Havlat trade, but at the cost of losing Heatley, one of their better young forwards in Setoguchi, having to let Ian White walk away and sign in Detroit, as well as a first round pick and top prospect Charlie Coyle.
Some of that lost offense will be made up by Logan Couture and others hopefully stepping into bigger roles and producing more, and some will be negated by the improved defensive unit replacing White with Burns, but not all of it. At best, this is a slight upgrade after you take what they lost into account, and if Burns has more concussion issues or leaves as a free agent next summer -he will be unrestricted- it's a huge step back.
LA Kings:
Gained: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Colin Fraser
Lost: Wayne Simmonds, Michal Handzus, Ryan Smyth, Alex Ponikarovsky
Richards and Gagne are huge upgrades at forward, although losing top penalty killer Handzus will hurt them there. Increased production from young defensemen Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, assuming restricted free agent Daughty is re-signed, will give the blue line a boost. The Kings issues surface when you get beyond their top two lines and top pair defense. They got 82 points form top d-men Johnson and Doughty and 62 points from the other 7 players who played there last year. The Kings hope that Gagne can bounce back from injuries that made his goal totals dip to 17 goals each of the last two seasons after scoring 30+ four of the previous five seasons. Out of the remaining returning forwards beyond the projected top six, they only got 38 total goals. If the younger players in that group can't produce more, or if they can't bring in outside help, the Kings will be in trouble as it takes more offense than that to win the Cup.
Vancouver Canucks:
The Canucks return virtually their entire roster from the Western Conference Champs. The one major loss was defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, who saw his rights traded twice before signing with Buffalo. That loss will likely fore Alain Vigneault to play Keith Ballard, who was banishes to the pressbox for his lackluster play and apparent clashes with the coach, despite a relatively hefty salary cap hit.
The Canucks biggest issue could be in goal, where the highly paid Roberto Luongo is beginning the start of his new long term contract. They'll sink or swim with him since he is basically untradeable with that contract. If his play in the playoffs doesn't improve, they simply will not be able to win the Cup. Ditto for the Sedin twins who disappeared against Boston after being Hart contenders in the regular season. The Canucks are probably the most dangerous team to the wings chances of making it to the Cup finals.
Chicago Blackhawks:
Gained: Rostislav Olesz (and his bad contract), Andrew Brunette, Daniel Carcillo, Jamal Mayers, Steve Montador, Sean O'Donnell
Lost:: Brian Campbell (and his bad contract), Tomas Kopecky, Troy Brouwer, Jassen Cullimore, Jake Dowell, Chris Campolli (un-signed RFA)
It was another eventful offseason for the Hawks. The best news is seems to be losing Brian Campbells' big contract, one that he had no chance of earning, but it might not be as good of a deal as it looks on the surface. Because they had to take Rostislav Olesz's contract, with 3 years left and a cap hit of $3.125 mil per year, they get a forward who has never scored more than 30 points and only managed 17 last season. Although Campbell has failed to produce as much as was hoped offensively, he did lead the team in +/- last year and was a solid second pair defenseman. He is replaced by Montador, a player who has never scored more than 26 points and played under 20 minutes a game for Buffalo. Other than the increased cap space, this seems to be a push on the ice. Other than that, the offseason was about getting some cap room and shuffling role players.
Although the Redwings didn't make any moves, with improved health and improvements from several players, they should be a better team. These other teams made more moves for the most part, but they are not necessarily better teams because of it, they simply made more exciting moves.
Several other Western Conference teams have had more exiting offseasons, bringing in, and in some cases shipping out, big names. Does that mean that they're better teams, or that better means that they passed the Wings? That remains to be seen. Thanks to capgeek.com for the salaries.
San Jose:
Gained: Martin Havlat, Brett Burns, Jim Vandermeer,
Lost: Devin Setoguchi, Dany Heatley, Ian White, Ben Eager, Jamal Mayers, Scott Nichol, Kent Huskins, Niclas Wallin, Kyle Wellwood (still unsigned)
Vandermeer for Huskins is basically a wash. Burns for White is an upgrade, assuming Burns concussion issues don't return. How big of an upgrade will depend on Burns health and how White performs playing for Detroit. Havlat for Heatley and Setoguchi, losing two top six forwards to get one back, is a big downgrade, at least in the regular season.
The Sharks are losing 74 goals from last year, including two forwards who were regulars on the penalty kill in Mayers and Nichol. The players they brought in scored 41 between them. There will be at least 2 other forwards added, and they have almost $5.6 million left in cap room. With couture replacing Setoguchi in the top six, the bottom six is weaker, and in the playoffs a team's third and fourth lines are often the difference in a series.
A large chunk of that will need to be set aside for raises that winger Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns will likely command this year when they become free agents. The transactions between the Sharks and Wild did land them a solid scoring winger in Havlat and a young up and coming defenseman in Burns, not to mention cap room they got from the Heatley for Havlat trade, but at the cost of losing Heatley, one of their better young forwards in Setoguchi, having to let Ian White walk away and sign in Detroit, as well as a first round pick and top prospect Charlie Coyle.
Some of that lost offense will be made up by Logan Couture and others hopefully stepping into bigger roles and producing more, and some will be negated by the improved defensive unit replacing White with Burns, but not all of it. At best, this is a slight upgrade after you take what they lost into account, and if Burns has more concussion issues or leaves as a free agent next summer -he will be unrestricted- it's a huge step back.
LA Kings:
Gained: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Colin Fraser
Lost: Wayne Simmonds, Michal Handzus, Ryan Smyth, Alex Ponikarovsky
Richards and Gagne are huge upgrades at forward, although losing top penalty killer Handzus will hurt them there. Increased production from young defensemen Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, assuming restricted free agent Daughty is re-signed, will give the blue line a boost. The Kings issues surface when you get beyond their top two lines and top pair defense. They got 82 points form top d-men Johnson and Doughty and 62 points from the other 7 players who played there last year. The Kings hope that Gagne can bounce back from injuries that made his goal totals dip to 17 goals each of the last two seasons after scoring 30+ four of the previous five seasons. Out of the remaining returning forwards beyond the projected top six, they only got 38 total goals. If the younger players in that group can't produce more, or if they can't bring in outside help, the Kings will be in trouble as it takes more offense than that to win the Cup.
Vancouver Canucks:
The Canucks return virtually their entire roster from the Western Conference Champs. The one major loss was defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, who saw his rights traded twice before signing with Buffalo. That loss will likely fore Alain Vigneault to play Keith Ballard, who was banishes to the pressbox for his lackluster play and apparent clashes with the coach, despite a relatively hefty salary cap hit.
The Canucks biggest issue could be in goal, where the highly paid Roberto Luongo is beginning the start of his new long term contract. They'll sink or swim with him since he is basically untradeable with that contract. If his play in the playoffs doesn't improve, they simply will not be able to win the Cup. Ditto for the Sedin twins who disappeared against Boston after being Hart contenders in the regular season. The Canucks are probably the most dangerous team to the wings chances of making it to the Cup finals.
Chicago Blackhawks:
Gained: Rostislav Olesz (and his bad contract), Andrew Brunette, Daniel Carcillo, Jamal Mayers, Steve Montador, Sean O'Donnell
Lost:: Brian Campbell (and his bad contract), Tomas Kopecky, Troy Brouwer, Jassen Cullimore, Jake Dowell, Chris Campolli (un-signed RFA)
It was another eventful offseason for the Hawks. The best news is seems to be losing Brian Campbells' big contract, one that he had no chance of earning, but it might not be as good of a deal as it looks on the surface. Because they had to take Rostislav Olesz's contract, with 3 years left and a cap hit of $3.125 mil per year, they get a forward who has never scored more than 30 points and only managed 17 last season. Although Campbell has failed to produce as much as was hoped offensively, he did lead the team in +/- last year and was a solid second pair defenseman. He is replaced by Montador, a player who has never scored more than 26 points and played under 20 minutes a game for Buffalo. Other than the increased cap space, this seems to be a push on the ice. Other than that, the offseason was about getting some cap room and shuffling role players.
Although the Redwings didn't make any moves, with improved health and improvements from several players, they should be a better team. These other teams made more moves for the most part, but they are not necessarily better teams because of it, they simply made more exciting moves.
Friday, July 15, 2011
How does this year's projected roster compare with past Cup winners?
Can the Wings win the Stanley Cup this coming season? The simple answer is that yes, assuming they'r relatively healthy they will have as good or a better chance than any other team. There are some people who insist that 2 straight years of losing to the Sharks, a team who allegedly got better (they didn't, but that's another discussion) means that the Wings need to make at least one big addition in order to win the Cup. I thought it would be interesting to compare this year's projected roster, which is basically set except for the #2 goalie spot, to the Cup winners from '97, '98, '02, and '08.
1997:
An early season trade that sent an aging Paul Coffey, an unhappy Keith Primeau, and some draft picks to Hartford for Brendan Shanahan and defenseman Brian Glynn gave the Wings one of the premier power forwards in the league. Shanahan, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov, Darren McCarty, and Slave Kozlov were the leading scorers among the forwards. Joey Kocur returned to the team mid season and teamed with Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby to form a tenacious checking line, eventually called the Grind Line. Doug Brown, Tomas Sandstrom (deadline deal), Marty Lapointe, a young Tomas Holstrom, and Time Taylor rounded out the forwards. Nick Lidstrom, Vladimir Konstantinov, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse, Aaron Ward and Jamie Pushor were the defensemen. Mike Vernon and Chris Osgood shared the net.
Yzerman and Shanahan led the team is scoring with 87 and 85 points respectively, followed by Fedorov with 63. Lidstrom and Konstantinov led the defense and their contrasting styles drove opponents batty trying to figure out how to counter it. The addition of Murphy, whose career was rejuvenated by the trade, allowed the team to split up Lidstrom and Konstantinov to form 2 shut down defense pairings to go along with the checking of the Grind line.
1998:
The Wings had to overcome the tragic loss of Konstantinov due to a limo accident days after they won the Cup. Fetisov was also in the limo, but was able to return to the ice. A season long holdout by Sergei Fedorov, only broken by the Hurricanes front loaded offer, was another distractaction the team needed to overcome. Yzerman led the team with 69 points that year, Lidstrom was second on the team with 59 points in his true breakout year. Pushor was lost in the expansion draft, and the team brought in another former Leaf in Jamie Macoun and Dmitri Mironov from Anaheim to solidify the back end. The Grind Line was even better, and center Kris Draper played over 15 minutes a game as a disruptive force at even strength and a top end penalty killer. In the playoffs, Mironov lost his job to youngster Anders Eriksson, and the Wings went with Lidstrom, Murphy, Macoun, Rouse, Fetisov and Eriksson on defense, getting the most ice time in that order. Holmstrom fell into a PP specialist role, getting about 3 minutes of his 11 he played per game there. He also managed 19 points in that run.
2002:
The year of the Hall of Famers. Shanahan, Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Larionov, Chelios, Lidstrom, Hasek, and the debut of Russian magician Pavel Datsyuk. Add defensemen Steve Duchesne, Fredrick Olausson, and rookie Jiri Fischer, plus Devereaux (playing with Hull and Datsyuk on the 2 Kids and a Goat line), agitator Sean Avery, Larionov, and the ever present and irritating Grind Line, and this could be one of the best lineups ever, at elast by sheer weight of their accomplishments. Despite that, no player averaged close to a point per game except Yzerman who had 48 points in 53 games. Shanahan and Fedorov led the team with 75 and 68 points. Lidstrom repeated as the Norris winner, Chris Chelios proved that age is just a number, and Fischer, Duchesne, Olausson, Slegr, Max Kuznetsov, Jesse Wallin and the ill-fated Uwe Krupp rounded out the defense. In the playoffs, Scotty Bowman lost confidence in Slegr and Krupp and rookies Wallin and Kuznetsov and dreed only 5 defensemen for all 23 games. Lidstrom averaged a stunning 31:10 minutes a game during the Cup run on the way to a much deserved Conn Smythe.
2008:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg were far and away the scoring leaders, both topping the 90 point mark. Hudler and Cleary added 42, and Holmstrom and Smauelsson both had 40. Franzen added 27 goals, and Lidstrom and Rafalski led the defense. Dallas Drake returned to Detroit for one last Cup run and teamed with Draper and Maltby to form another strong checking line. Hudler, Holmstrom, Samuelsson, Filppula, Cleary, and Kopecky rounded out the forward unit. Brad Stuart teamed with Kronwall to form a solid second defense unit, and Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja rounded out the defense unit.
2011-12:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg remain the top forwards. Bertuzzi, Filppula, Hudler, Cleary, Franzen, and Holmstrom give the team 8 forwards who are more than capable of topping the 40 point mark, the same number of forwards they had who approached or surpassed 40 points in 08 and two more than they had in 98. Lidstrom, Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Stuart, Kindl and Commodore as a group are as good or better than any of the units on the previous winners, with the exception of the '97 team. They are certainly better than the '02 defense, which lacked depth to the point where they only dressed five defensemen. The bottom three of Commodore, Kindl and Ericsson are better than an aging Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja from the '08 team, which makes up for at least part of the difference between the top four D on each team. Darren Helm and whoever out of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak, or Emmerton plays with him should be as disruptive as the Grind Line in its various incarnations. That line, along with whatever combinations Babcock uses for the other three lines, should give the Wings 3 scoring lines and a superb checking line, just like the 4 Cup teams had. Jimmy Howard should be even better with another year of experience and a boosted confidence level of knowing he is the #1 guy in net and is capable of stealing playoff games.
In short, this team compares favorably to every other team that the Wings have iced since they started their run of dominance. As long as they stay relatively healthy, there is no reason they can't win the Stanley Cup.
1997:
An early season trade that sent an aging Paul Coffey, an unhappy Keith Primeau, and some draft picks to Hartford for Brendan Shanahan and defenseman Brian Glynn gave the Wings one of the premier power forwards in the league. Shanahan, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov, Darren McCarty, and Slave Kozlov were the leading scorers among the forwards. Joey Kocur returned to the team mid season and teamed with Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby to form a tenacious checking line, eventually called the Grind Line. Doug Brown, Tomas Sandstrom (deadline deal), Marty Lapointe, a young Tomas Holstrom, and Time Taylor rounded out the forwards. Nick Lidstrom, Vladimir Konstantinov, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse, Aaron Ward and Jamie Pushor were the defensemen. Mike Vernon and Chris Osgood shared the net.
Yzerman and Shanahan led the team is scoring with 87 and 85 points respectively, followed by Fedorov with 63. Lidstrom and Konstantinov led the defense and their contrasting styles drove opponents batty trying to figure out how to counter it. The addition of Murphy, whose career was rejuvenated by the trade, allowed the team to split up Lidstrom and Konstantinov to form 2 shut down defense pairings to go along with the checking of the Grind line.
1998:
The Wings had to overcome the tragic loss of Konstantinov due to a limo accident days after they won the Cup. Fetisov was also in the limo, but was able to return to the ice. A season long holdout by Sergei Fedorov, only broken by the Hurricanes front loaded offer, was another distractaction the team needed to overcome. Yzerman led the team with 69 points that year, Lidstrom was second on the team with 59 points in his true breakout year. Pushor was lost in the expansion draft, and the team brought in another former Leaf in Jamie Macoun and Dmitri Mironov from Anaheim to solidify the back end. The Grind Line was even better, and center Kris Draper played over 15 minutes a game as a disruptive force at even strength and a top end penalty killer. In the playoffs, Mironov lost his job to youngster Anders Eriksson, and the Wings went with Lidstrom, Murphy, Macoun, Rouse, Fetisov and Eriksson on defense, getting the most ice time in that order. Holmstrom fell into a PP specialist role, getting about 3 minutes of his 11 he played per game there. He also managed 19 points in that run.
2002:
The year of the Hall of Famers. Shanahan, Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Larionov, Chelios, Lidstrom, Hasek, and the debut of Russian magician Pavel Datsyuk. Add defensemen Steve Duchesne, Fredrick Olausson, and rookie Jiri Fischer, plus Devereaux (playing with Hull and Datsyuk on the 2 Kids and a Goat line), agitator Sean Avery, Larionov, and the ever present and irritating Grind Line, and this could be one of the best lineups ever, at elast by sheer weight of their accomplishments. Despite that, no player averaged close to a point per game except Yzerman who had 48 points in 53 games. Shanahan and Fedorov led the team with 75 and 68 points. Lidstrom repeated as the Norris winner, Chris Chelios proved that age is just a number, and Fischer, Duchesne, Olausson, Slegr, Max Kuznetsov, Jesse Wallin and the ill-fated Uwe Krupp rounded out the defense. In the playoffs, Scotty Bowman lost confidence in Slegr and Krupp and rookies Wallin and Kuznetsov and dreed only 5 defensemen for all 23 games. Lidstrom averaged a stunning 31:10 minutes a game during the Cup run on the way to a much deserved Conn Smythe.
2008:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg were far and away the scoring leaders, both topping the 90 point mark. Hudler and Cleary added 42, and Holmstrom and Smauelsson both had 40. Franzen added 27 goals, and Lidstrom and Rafalski led the defense. Dallas Drake returned to Detroit for one last Cup run and teamed with Draper and Maltby to form another strong checking line. Hudler, Holmstrom, Samuelsson, Filppula, Cleary, and Kopecky rounded out the forward unit. Brad Stuart teamed with Kronwall to form a solid second defense unit, and Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja rounded out the defense unit.
2011-12:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg remain the top forwards. Bertuzzi, Filppula, Hudler, Cleary, Franzen, and Holmstrom give the team 8 forwards who are more than capable of topping the 40 point mark, the same number of forwards they had who approached or surpassed 40 points in 08 and two more than they had in 98. Lidstrom, Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Stuart, Kindl and Commodore as a group are as good or better than any of the units on the previous winners, with the exception of the '97 team. They are certainly better than the '02 defense, which lacked depth to the point where they only dressed five defensemen. The bottom three of Commodore, Kindl and Ericsson are better than an aging Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja from the '08 team, which makes up for at least part of the difference between the top four D on each team. Darren Helm and whoever out of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak, or Emmerton plays with him should be as disruptive as the Grind Line in its various incarnations. That line, along with whatever combinations Babcock uses for the other three lines, should give the Wings 3 scoring lines and a superb checking line, just like the 4 Cup teams had. Jimmy Howard should be even better with another year of experience and a boosted confidence level of knowing he is the #1 guy in net and is capable of stealing playoff games.
In short, this team compares favorably to every other team that the Wings have iced since they started their run of dominance. As long as they stay relatively healthy, there is no reason they can't win the Stanley Cup.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The importance of a checking line center; why Darren Helm won't be a top 6 winger
There has been recent discussion among Red Wings fans that speedster Darren Helm should be moved to wing playing with Pavel Datsyuk and/or Henrik Zetterberg. The argument is that his speed could open up the ice for his linemates, and he would crash the net to clean up the garbage around the crease. He could do that. So can Dan Cleary, Tomas Holmstrom, and to an extent Todd Bertuzzi fill the grinder roles on those lines. Valterri Filppula an Jiri Hudler also fill top 6 scoring line roles.
Then there is the talent issue. Helm is one of the fastest people on ice outside of Olympic speed skaters. He is a tenacious checker who's willing to hit anything that moves and can change the outcome of the game like he did against Phoenix in the playoffs with his bodily bombardment of the Coyotes' defense, particularly Ed Jovanovski. His speed leads to several breakaways over the season. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the hands or the vision to be a scorer. Draft position isn't everything, but when he was drafted he was projected as a checking line center provided he could get stronger based on his hands, and he has done nothing since turning pro to suggest he could be a goal scorer.
The biggest reason to keep Helm on the checking line has to do with what's best for the team. Fans tend to judge a player's value on the stats that they put up. A forward who scores 45 points in a scoring role must be more valuable than a player who scored 30 points playing a checking role. In reality that's not true. A 10 point boost for Helm is simply not as important to the team's success as keeping him on a line where his job is to go in, hit people, disrupt the other team's break out, and be a penalty killer. During the last four Stanley Cups in '97, '98, '02, and '08, the Wings have had a checking line center who played in the 15:30 a night range. Kris Draper's tenaciousness on the forecheck, ability to disrupt the attack coming the other way and play shut down defense against a scoring line, freeing up one of the Wings scoring lines from having to match up against a top line were all important factors in those Cup runs. Helm isn't there quite yet, but he seems to be well on his way. Those type of centers aren't as common as some people think, and when you have one they're as valuable as a 25 goal scorer. Helm centering two of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak or Emmerton is a much better checking line than Abdelkader or Emmerton centering two of those other bottom six forwards. Helm on the second line scoring 40 or 45 points isn't more effective than Danny Cleary or Todd Bertuzzi on the second line scoring 45 points.
Simply put, wingers who can put up 40-45 points are common. Checking line centers who can do what Helm can do are not. If a player is excellent in one role but only average in another, any coach who should keep his job keeps the player in the role that he excels in.
Then there is the talent issue. Helm is one of the fastest people on ice outside of Olympic speed skaters. He is a tenacious checker who's willing to hit anything that moves and can change the outcome of the game like he did against Phoenix in the playoffs with his bodily bombardment of the Coyotes' defense, particularly Ed Jovanovski. His speed leads to several breakaways over the season. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the hands or the vision to be a scorer. Draft position isn't everything, but when he was drafted he was projected as a checking line center provided he could get stronger based on his hands, and he has done nothing since turning pro to suggest he could be a goal scorer.
The biggest reason to keep Helm on the checking line has to do with what's best for the team. Fans tend to judge a player's value on the stats that they put up. A forward who scores 45 points in a scoring role must be more valuable than a player who scored 30 points playing a checking role. In reality that's not true. A 10 point boost for Helm is simply not as important to the team's success as keeping him on a line where his job is to go in, hit people, disrupt the other team's break out, and be a penalty killer. During the last four Stanley Cups in '97, '98, '02, and '08, the Wings have had a checking line center who played in the 15:30 a night range. Kris Draper's tenaciousness on the forecheck, ability to disrupt the attack coming the other way and play shut down defense against a scoring line, freeing up one of the Wings scoring lines from having to match up against a top line were all important factors in those Cup runs. Helm isn't there quite yet, but he seems to be well on his way. Those type of centers aren't as common as some people think, and when you have one they're as valuable as a 25 goal scorer. Helm centering two of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak or Emmerton is a much better checking line than Abdelkader or Emmerton centering two of those other bottom six forwards. Helm on the second line scoring 40 or 45 points isn't more effective than Danny Cleary or Todd Bertuzzi on the second line scoring 45 points.
Simply put, wingers who can put up 40-45 points are common. Checking line centers who can do what Helm can do are not. If a player is excellent in one role but only average in another, any coach who should keep his job keeps the player in the role that he excels in.
Monday, July 11, 2011
10 Possible backup goalies
The one spot that Ken Holland hasn't been able to fill this off season is the #2 goalie job behind Jimmy Howard. This isn't much of a surprise though. Most goalies, at least the good ones, want to go to a team where they have at least a chance of being the #1 goalie if they play well. At minimum, they want to go to a team where they'll probably play more than 20 or 25 games. In his two full seasons as Red Wings goalie, Howard has played in 61 and 62 games, winning 37 each season. Part of that has been because of Chris Osgood's heath issues, but part of it is from Mike Babcock riding the hot goalie. Howard is young enough to handle the workload, so his backup could be limited to not many games unless he misses time due to an injury. however, most teams have their goalie situation covered by now, and players may be looking to get whatever NHL job they can find.
The Wings have signed Joey MacDonald to a contract, presumably to play in Grand Rapids and be the call up when they need a spare goalie (thank to Lindy at redwingscentral.com for the confirmation for that). This gives the Wings some insurance in case they can't find someone as MacDonald did a serviceable job last year, posting a .917 save % and 2.58 GAA in 15 games, 9 of which he started. There are a few players left who could help Detroit and might be better than MacDonald, though, and the Wings will certainly be on the phones with agents working out a deal.
Chris Osgood- Ozzie is a potential Hall of Fame player, racking up 400 career wins and winning two Stanley Cups as a starter. He's had several injury issues however, and the Wings might prefer to find someone who is less of a risk. The MacDonald signing gives them insurance if they do bring Osgood back, however, and his relationship with GM Ken Holland cold come into play here to at least earn a shot at the #2 job in a training camp competition.
Ty Conkllin- Conklin had one of the best seasons of his career in Detroit, and might be willing to come back to the team after playing the last two years for a sub-par Blues team. However, he's a 35-year-old career backup coming off a horrendous season. It's hard to say how much of that is due to playing behind a porous defense and how much of it is age catching up to him.
Pascal Leclaire- He went from a future all-star to terrible. Like Conklin, that could be a product of playing for less than stellar teams in Columbus and Ottawa, but at this point his confidence could be shaken to the point of no return. He could be an interesting reclamation product if he's willing to come to Detroit to be the #2 goalie, although he may have to accept a two-way contract.
Marty Turco- The veteran goalie has had a good career, except when he's played Detroit. He could still be a good backup, but may be looking at retirement rather than spend another year on the bench charting faceoffs.
Patrick Lalime- Another goalie who started off hot and then had his career derail. He was fantastic until the lockout, posting sub 2.5 GAAs five straight years, including 2 seasons under 2.3 GAA. Since the lockout he's been relegated to back up duty after a disastrous year with St. Louis. It's unlikely to think that he could revive his career and post his pre-lockout numbers, but he could be a solid option.
Martin Gerber- Gerber has bounced around the professional leagues and was buried on the Oilers farm team last season. He did put up solid numbers in the AHL and posted a 1.30 GAA in the 3 games he played for Edmonton. He should be able to give the Wings a chance to win the nights he plays if they settle on him, and at this point of his career he won't be offered a chance to start anywhere else.
Ray Emery- Injuries and attitude have derailed his career, but he looks to have both of those issues under control. He may be looking for a team that will give him a chance to play more than he would in Detroit, but as the summer progresses he may not have any options except as a #2. Emery could be the best option in free agency if he's willing to play second fiddle to Howard for a year.
Evgeni Nabokov-The Wings tried to get him last year but the Islanders claimed him on waivers. He doesn't want to play for them, however, and GM Garth Snow may be looking to trade him. A low round draft pick could be enough to get him if that's the case.
Michael Leighton- Philly has 3 goalies and not a lot of cap space after giving Ilya Bryzgalov a mind boggling 9 year, $51 million contract. The 30 year old has had an up and down career, but did a solid job for the Flyers 2 seasons ago when it was his turn in their musical goalie rotation. He could be a good fit for the Wings and, like Nabokov, could possibly be had for a mid to low round draft pick or mid level prospect.
Joey MacDonald- The journeyman goalie did well when called upon lest season. He is by no means a starting caliber goalie, but could do an adequate job in net for 20 or 25 games to give Howard an occasional break. He only had two truly bad games, one of which was the 10-3 collapse against St. Louis at the end of March. That was a complete team wide collapse so it's hard to put any of that on any one player. Other than that, one of his losses and an OT loss came after he stepped in for a struggling Howard in a blowout, only to have the Wings come back, tie it, and then lose after MacDonald gave up only one goal.
The Wings have signed Joey MacDonald to a contract, presumably to play in Grand Rapids and be the call up when they need a spare goalie (thank to Lindy at redwingscentral.com for the confirmation for that). This gives the Wings some insurance in case they can't find someone as MacDonald did a serviceable job last year, posting a .917 save % and 2.58 GAA in 15 games, 9 of which he started. There are a few players left who could help Detroit and might be better than MacDonald, though, and the Wings will certainly be on the phones with agents working out a deal.
Chris Osgood- Ozzie is a potential Hall of Fame player, racking up 400 career wins and winning two Stanley Cups as a starter. He's had several injury issues however, and the Wings might prefer to find someone who is less of a risk. The MacDonald signing gives them insurance if they do bring Osgood back, however, and his relationship with GM Ken Holland cold come into play here to at least earn a shot at the #2 job in a training camp competition.
Ty Conkllin- Conklin had one of the best seasons of his career in Detroit, and might be willing to come back to the team after playing the last two years for a sub-par Blues team. However, he's a 35-year-old career backup coming off a horrendous season. It's hard to say how much of that is due to playing behind a porous defense and how much of it is age catching up to him.
Pascal Leclaire- He went from a future all-star to terrible. Like Conklin, that could be a product of playing for less than stellar teams in Columbus and Ottawa, but at this point his confidence could be shaken to the point of no return. He could be an interesting reclamation product if he's willing to come to Detroit to be the #2 goalie, although he may have to accept a two-way contract.
Marty Turco- The veteran goalie has had a good career, except when he's played Detroit. He could still be a good backup, but may be looking at retirement rather than spend another year on the bench charting faceoffs.
Patrick Lalime- Another goalie who started off hot and then had his career derail. He was fantastic until the lockout, posting sub 2.5 GAAs five straight years, including 2 seasons under 2.3 GAA. Since the lockout he's been relegated to back up duty after a disastrous year with St. Louis. It's unlikely to think that he could revive his career and post his pre-lockout numbers, but he could be a solid option.
Martin Gerber- Gerber has bounced around the professional leagues and was buried on the Oilers farm team last season. He did put up solid numbers in the AHL and posted a 1.30 GAA in the 3 games he played for Edmonton. He should be able to give the Wings a chance to win the nights he plays if they settle on him, and at this point of his career he won't be offered a chance to start anywhere else.
Ray Emery- Injuries and attitude have derailed his career, but he looks to have both of those issues under control. He may be looking for a team that will give him a chance to play more than he would in Detroit, but as the summer progresses he may not have any options except as a #2. Emery could be the best option in free agency if he's willing to play second fiddle to Howard for a year.
Evgeni Nabokov-The Wings tried to get him last year but the Islanders claimed him on waivers. He doesn't want to play for them, however, and GM Garth Snow may be looking to trade him. A low round draft pick could be enough to get him if that's the case.
Michael Leighton- Philly has 3 goalies and not a lot of cap space after giving Ilya Bryzgalov a mind boggling 9 year, $51 million contract. The 30 year old has had an up and down career, but did a solid job for the Flyers 2 seasons ago when it was his turn in their musical goalie rotation. He could be a good fit for the Wings and, like Nabokov, could possibly be had for a mid to low round draft pick or mid level prospect.
Joey MacDonald- The journeyman goalie did well when called upon lest season. He is by no means a starting caliber goalie, but could do an adequate job in net for 20 or 25 games to give Howard an occasional break. He only had two truly bad games, one of which was the 10-3 collapse against St. Louis at the end of March. That was a complete team wide collapse so it's hard to put any of that on any one player. Other than that, one of his losses and an OT loss came after he stepped in for a struggling Howard in a blowout, only to have the Wings come back, tie it, and then lose after MacDonald gave up only one goal.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Don't hold you breath waiting for Smith
Ken Holland has repeatedly said that he expects young defenseman Brendan Smith to compete for a spot in the lineup in training camp. I have just one question. How?
The top three spots are secure with Nick Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Nik Kronwall. The other spot in the top four will be filled by either Jonathan Ericsson or Ian White. The loser of that competition will pair with either Jakub Kindl or Mike Commodore for the 3rd pair, and the loser of THAT competition will be slotted as the seventh defenseman.
We know there will be injuries, and it's probable that Smith will get some action for the Wings this season as a call up. But making the team out of camp? I don't see how that happens unless they make a trade. If they trade Kindl as part of a package to get a top 6 and don't get an NHL defenseman in return, Smith might beat our Commodore for a regular spot in the lineup. Unless that happens, however, Griffins fans will be seeing a lot of Smith in Van Andel Arena this season.
The top three spots are secure with Nick Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Nik Kronwall. The other spot in the top four will be filled by either Jonathan Ericsson or Ian White. The loser of that competition will pair with either Jakub Kindl or Mike Commodore for the 3rd pair, and the loser of THAT competition will be slotted as the seventh defenseman.
We know there will be injuries, and it's probable that Smith will get some action for the Wings this season as a call up. But making the team out of camp? I don't see how that happens unless they make a trade. If they trade Kindl as part of a package to get a top 6 and don't get an NHL defenseman in return, Smith might beat our Commodore for a regular spot in the lineup. Unless that happens, however, Griffins fans will be seeing a lot of Smith in Van Andel Arena this season.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Possible forward targets
Although Ken Holland has said several times that he thinks the roster is more or less set except for the backup goalie, coach Mike Babcock mentioned wanting a top 6 forward, presumably one who is projected to score more than the 40-50 point range that the 5 guys whop will be rotating in and out of the top 6 will score.
Who's out there?
Buffalo is currently $350k under the cap and has to sign at minimum a 7th defenseman and a backup goalie. Someone is going to go. They would probably love to move Jason Pominville's $5.3 mil cap hit (for 66 goals over the last 3 seasons) but he has a partial no trade clause allowing him to name 8 teams where he won't go. If those 8 teams are the ones that have cap space, then he's unmovable. That leaves star winger Tomas Vanek, and a trio of forwards in Drew Stafford, Derek Roy, and Brad Boyes. They would probably prefer not to move Vanek, but his salary is the only one high enough to move and take a player making much money in return. If they trade one of the other three, all of whom have a $4 million cap hit, they will likely have to either take back a low paid grinder/3rd pair defenseman, a player still on his entry level deal, or a package of picks and/or prospects.
I'm not sure the Wings have enough that they would be willing to trade to get Vanek, as some team will likely give up several good prospects and/or picks plus a roster player or two to get him. Since the lockout, that's not Ken Holland's style. Roy, Stafford, and Boyes would be interesting acquisitions, however.
Boyes would be the biggest risk of the group, and might only require the Wings to send a mid level prospect and a lower draft pick to get. The former 40 goal scorer has struggled the last two seasons since signing his big contract. Detroit's culture has helped other players regain their form however, and could be the cure Boyes is looking for. Roy is coming off an injury plagues season where he only played in 35 games, but his previous 3 seasons saw him pot 32, 28, and 26 goals. Stafford is coming off a breakout season that saw him score 31 goals. As the youngest member of the 44 million trio, he's the most intriguing, but like Vanek could cost more than the Wings are willing to give up for a player who has had one big season that came in a contract year.
Washington is also going to have to move someone in order to get under the cap. As of now, they are actually $1.8 million over the cap. It's been speculated that they will move Alexander Semin, who has a $6.7 million cap hit and us a unrestricted free agent next summer. He would certainly bring in the most in return, likely a combination of 3 or 4 high picks and top prospects. Like Vanek, I don't see Holland making that trade. Semin is likely going to want to break the bank next summer after signing a one year deal last summer in his restricted free agent year. It's unlikely that the Wings will trade away several potential NHL players for what could be a one year rental.
If the Caps like Semin (insert joke here) enough to keep him, they could free up enough cap space by moving one or two of Eric Fehr, former Wing Mike Knuble, or Jason Chimera, plus one of Tom "Defense, What's That?" Poti, or Jeff Schultz. The defenseman they move will be replaced int he lineup by restricted free agent Karl Alzner, and the forward would be replaced by a rookie or low salary veteran. Knuble is the only player in that group that could help the Wings. He's 39 and likely in his last season, but he's coming off his 9th straight season where he scored 20+ goals, and has scored 53 goals the last 2 seasons with Washington.
Other forwards who could be moved that may help the Wings include Pittsburgh's Chris Kunitz and New Jersey's David Clarkson. Clarkson would be brought in to provide muscle, not scoring, so I'm not sure that's a move they'd make.
The majority of their moves would require a second trade, most like Jiri Hudler being moved for a draft pick or a prospect. It's unlikely Detroit would get value in return, but if you look at it as part of the same trade, it could be worth it.
Who did I miss? Would you be willing to bring back an aging Mike Knuble for one last Cup run with his original team? Would you be willing to take on a reclamation project in Boyes or risk Stafford not living up to his contract for the next four years?
Who's out there?
Buffalo is currently $350k under the cap and has to sign at minimum a 7th defenseman and a backup goalie. Someone is going to go. They would probably love to move Jason Pominville's $5.3 mil cap hit (for 66 goals over the last 3 seasons) but he has a partial no trade clause allowing him to name 8 teams where he won't go. If those 8 teams are the ones that have cap space, then he's unmovable. That leaves star winger Tomas Vanek, and a trio of forwards in Drew Stafford, Derek Roy, and Brad Boyes. They would probably prefer not to move Vanek, but his salary is the only one high enough to move and take a player making much money in return. If they trade one of the other three, all of whom have a $4 million cap hit, they will likely have to either take back a low paid grinder/3rd pair defenseman, a player still on his entry level deal, or a package of picks and/or prospects.
I'm not sure the Wings have enough that they would be willing to trade to get Vanek, as some team will likely give up several good prospects and/or picks plus a roster player or two to get him. Since the lockout, that's not Ken Holland's style. Roy, Stafford, and Boyes would be interesting acquisitions, however.
Boyes would be the biggest risk of the group, and might only require the Wings to send a mid level prospect and a lower draft pick to get. The former 40 goal scorer has struggled the last two seasons since signing his big contract. Detroit's culture has helped other players regain their form however, and could be the cure Boyes is looking for. Roy is coming off an injury plagues season where he only played in 35 games, but his previous 3 seasons saw him pot 32, 28, and 26 goals. Stafford is coming off a breakout season that saw him score 31 goals. As the youngest member of the 44 million trio, he's the most intriguing, but like Vanek could cost more than the Wings are willing to give up for a player who has had one big season that came in a contract year.
Washington is also going to have to move someone in order to get under the cap. As of now, they are actually $1.8 million over the cap. It's been speculated that they will move Alexander Semin, who has a $6.7 million cap hit and us a unrestricted free agent next summer. He would certainly bring in the most in return, likely a combination of 3 or 4 high picks and top prospects. Like Vanek, I don't see Holland making that trade. Semin is likely going to want to break the bank next summer after signing a one year deal last summer in his restricted free agent year. It's unlikely that the Wings will trade away several potential NHL players for what could be a one year rental.
If the Caps like Semin (insert joke here) enough to keep him, they could free up enough cap space by moving one or two of Eric Fehr, former Wing Mike Knuble, or Jason Chimera, plus one of Tom "Defense, What's That?" Poti, or Jeff Schultz. The defenseman they move will be replaced int he lineup by restricted free agent Karl Alzner, and the forward would be replaced by a rookie or low salary veteran. Knuble is the only player in that group that could help the Wings. He's 39 and likely in his last season, but he's coming off his 9th straight season where he scored 20+ goals, and has scored 53 goals the last 2 seasons with Washington.
Other forwards who could be moved that may help the Wings include Pittsburgh's Chris Kunitz and New Jersey's David Clarkson. Clarkson would be brought in to provide muscle, not scoring, so I'm not sure that's a move they'd make.
The majority of their moves would require a second trade, most like Jiri Hudler being moved for a draft pick or a prospect. It's unlikely Detroit would get value in return, but if you look at it as part of the same trade, it could be worth it.
Who did I miss? Would you be willing to bring back an aging Mike Knuble for one last Cup run with his original team? Would you be willing to take on a reclamation project in Boyes or risk Stafford not living up to his contract for the next four years?
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Hello and Welcome to Red Wings and Things
First off, I love Red Wings hockey. I'm a bit of a homer, but at the same time I try to step back and look at things objectively. This blog will focus mostly on all things Red Wings, but if something else comes up, I'm sure I'll address it too. If I'm not blogging, I'm usually posting on www.redwingscentral.com, THE site for info on Wings prospects run by capgeek creator Mathew Wuest, along with contributions from Sarah "Lindy" Lindeau, or on an offshoot forum, www.therealworldforum.com where we talk about non-sports related stuff. And with that out of the way, let's look at the Wings off season so far.
A few people have been complaining a lot about the contract Jonathan Ericsson got. I don't think anyone really believes that he's worth $3.25 million this year, but if he he improves he will be worth it by the end of the deal. The signing also allowed the Wings to focus on finding a solid player in free agency without knowing that they HAVE TO get someone and overpaying for someone like Kaberle. His contract isn't that much of an over payment, not as bad as a journeyman defenseman who has a career season in a contract year getting $5.5 mil a year for 6 years or a winger with known motivational issues getting $4.5 a yer for 6 years, for example. Last season he was only 7 seconds a game behind Niklas Kronwall and 4 seconds behind Brad Stuart in even strength time on ice per game, playing more at even strength than Nick Lidstrom and Brian Raflski both. Even if he doesn't get better, a defenseman capable of eating minutes like that is worth at least close to $3.25 million a year.
Jiri Hudler is another lightning rod for criticism from Wings fans. Yes he's small. Yes, he's slow. But he also put up 57 points while playing a little more than 13:30 a game in the 08-09 season and the skill is still there. If his confidence and conditioning improves, he could easily approach 60 points this season. Even with the size and speed limitations, that's good value for $2.875 million. Ville Leino took a season similar to Hudler's big year and turned that into a 6 year deal worth $4.5 million a season, despite the fact that his NHL career prior to that was 20 points in 68 games over 2 seasons. Think about it this way, Hudler managed 10 goals and 37 points in a season where he played abysmally. If he plays better at all, those numbers will increase. He might be traded, as some people are calling for, but if it happens it's going to be for a better forward as part of a package leaving the Wings.
Buffalo's Tomas Vanek and Washington's Alexander Semin might be possible targets on that front. Both teams need to clear cap space, and both payers eat a large chunk of salary cap. It would likely take Hudler, possibly young defenseman Jakub Kindl, plus draft picks or some of the Wings better prospects to make either trade possible. In order to take Hudler's contract, a team trading for him that needs cap space would have to be sending a high salary forward like Vanek or Semin to Detroit. Derek Roy, for example, wouldn't save Buffalo enough money to make it worth making the trade. Ken Holland also won't be trading Hudler for a draft pick or the mid level prospect he would bring in return unless a trade not including Hudler is made. Since neither Washington nor Buffalo need a defenseman, that's not likely to happen.
Mike Commodore was signed on the opening day of free agency. At the time, he was likely going to compete with Brendan Smith for a regular spot in the lineup and provide a big body and physical play to the 3rd pairing and the penalty kill. Now, it's likely he'll be fighting with Kindl for ice time when everyone is healthy. This was a solid signing. Commodore has to redeem himself after a disastrous stint in Columbus to prove he's still a good NHL player. He plays a simple, solid game that will help steady Ericsson or Kindl, whover is playing with him, and will help on the Wings penalty kill when he's in the lineup.
Ian White was another good signing, and it could be a great one. He took a pay cut to leave San Jose to some to the Wings. After bouncing around for most of his career, playing for three teams last year alone, the Wings will provide stability for a puck moving defenseman who plays with snarl and seems like a perfect fit for the Wings puck possession system. Look for his numbers improve as he gets comfortable and settle in, firing shots from the point on the power play and being a pain in the ass for opposing forwards in the defensive zone.
Look for Jan Mursak and Cory Emmerton to make a mark on the team with fresh legs and speed when they're in the lineup. The two rookies will likely be replacing vets Mike Modano and Kris Draper in the lineup, although a final decision on Draper has yet to be made. He could still be brought back to compete for the final forward spot and push the youngsters. He played well last year, and showed that he still has some gas left in the tank, but at some point young players have to replace veterans, and as long as Emmerton and Mursak show NHL skills in camp, this is likely time for Draper to step aside.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Wings offseason so far is the re-signing of Drew Miller. Contract talks had apparently stalled between the Wings and his agent, former Wings Jason Woolley, and it was speculated that Miller would be moving to another team where he would have a better chance at more ice time after being a healthy scratch several times last season. Miller doesn't do anything great, but he can play either wing, on virtually any line as a fill in, and is a solid penalty killer.
The only question that remains is who is going to backup Jimmy Howard? Speculation is centering around former Wings backup Ty Conklin, who has been in St. Louis the last two seasons. His numbers were sub-par last season, but that could have been more of a product of the Blues less than stellar play than Conklin's declining ability. Personally, I would prefer someone else. A 35 year old career backup goalie coming off a bad season is a risky signing. Evgeni Nabokov and one of the Flyers goalies, Bobrovsky or Leighton, will likely be available through trade and could be better options. The other option is Chris Osgood, assuming he can convince Holland that his groin troubles are in the past. Regardless, a decision will not be announced until this weekend when Osgood comes back from a golf trip to Europe. Holland is scheduled to meet with him, either to discuss a possible contract or to break the news that they're going in another direction. It's classy moves like that that pull players not named James Wizniewski to the Wings.
A few people have been complaining a lot about the contract Jonathan Ericsson got. I don't think anyone really believes that he's worth $3.25 million this year, but if he he improves he will be worth it by the end of the deal. The signing also allowed the Wings to focus on finding a solid player in free agency without knowing that they HAVE TO get someone and overpaying for someone like Kaberle. His contract isn't that much of an over payment, not as bad as a journeyman defenseman who has a career season in a contract year getting $5.5 mil a year for 6 years or a winger with known motivational issues getting $4.5 a yer for 6 years, for example. Last season he was only 7 seconds a game behind Niklas Kronwall and 4 seconds behind Brad Stuart in even strength time on ice per game, playing more at even strength than Nick Lidstrom and Brian Raflski both. Even if he doesn't get better, a defenseman capable of eating minutes like that is worth at least close to $3.25 million a year.
Jiri Hudler is another lightning rod for criticism from Wings fans. Yes he's small. Yes, he's slow. But he also put up 57 points while playing a little more than 13:30 a game in the 08-09 season and the skill is still there. If his confidence and conditioning improves, he could easily approach 60 points this season. Even with the size and speed limitations, that's good value for $2.875 million. Ville Leino took a season similar to Hudler's big year and turned that into a 6 year deal worth $4.5 million a season, despite the fact that his NHL career prior to that was 20 points in 68 games over 2 seasons. Think about it this way, Hudler managed 10 goals and 37 points in a season where he played abysmally. If he plays better at all, those numbers will increase. He might be traded, as some people are calling for, but if it happens it's going to be for a better forward as part of a package leaving the Wings.
Buffalo's Tomas Vanek and Washington's Alexander Semin might be possible targets on that front. Both teams need to clear cap space, and both payers eat a large chunk of salary cap. It would likely take Hudler, possibly young defenseman Jakub Kindl, plus draft picks or some of the Wings better prospects to make either trade possible. In order to take Hudler's contract, a team trading for him that needs cap space would have to be sending a high salary forward like Vanek or Semin to Detroit. Derek Roy, for example, wouldn't save Buffalo enough money to make it worth making the trade. Ken Holland also won't be trading Hudler for a draft pick or the mid level prospect he would bring in return unless a trade not including Hudler is made. Since neither Washington nor Buffalo need a defenseman, that's not likely to happen.
Mike Commodore was signed on the opening day of free agency. At the time, he was likely going to compete with Brendan Smith for a regular spot in the lineup and provide a big body and physical play to the 3rd pairing and the penalty kill. Now, it's likely he'll be fighting with Kindl for ice time when everyone is healthy. This was a solid signing. Commodore has to redeem himself after a disastrous stint in Columbus to prove he's still a good NHL player. He plays a simple, solid game that will help steady Ericsson or Kindl, whover is playing with him, and will help on the Wings penalty kill when he's in the lineup.
Ian White was another good signing, and it could be a great one. He took a pay cut to leave San Jose to some to the Wings. After bouncing around for most of his career, playing for three teams last year alone, the Wings will provide stability for a puck moving defenseman who plays with snarl and seems like a perfect fit for the Wings puck possession system. Look for his numbers improve as he gets comfortable and settle in, firing shots from the point on the power play and being a pain in the ass for opposing forwards in the defensive zone.
Look for Jan Mursak and Cory Emmerton to make a mark on the team with fresh legs and speed when they're in the lineup. The two rookies will likely be replacing vets Mike Modano and Kris Draper in the lineup, although a final decision on Draper has yet to be made. He could still be brought back to compete for the final forward spot and push the youngsters. He played well last year, and showed that he still has some gas left in the tank, but at some point young players have to replace veterans, and as long as Emmerton and Mursak show NHL skills in camp, this is likely time for Draper to step aside.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Wings offseason so far is the re-signing of Drew Miller. Contract talks had apparently stalled between the Wings and his agent, former Wings Jason Woolley, and it was speculated that Miller would be moving to another team where he would have a better chance at more ice time after being a healthy scratch several times last season. Miller doesn't do anything great, but he can play either wing, on virtually any line as a fill in, and is a solid penalty killer.
The only question that remains is who is going to backup Jimmy Howard? Speculation is centering around former Wings backup Ty Conklin, who has been in St. Louis the last two seasons. His numbers were sub-par last season, but that could have been more of a product of the Blues less than stellar play than Conklin's declining ability. Personally, I would prefer someone else. A 35 year old career backup goalie coming off a bad season is a risky signing. Evgeni Nabokov and one of the Flyers goalies, Bobrovsky or Leighton, will likely be available through trade and could be better options. The other option is Chris Osgood, assuming he can convince Holland that his groin troubles are in the past. Regardless, a decision will not be announced until this weekend when Osgood comes back from a golf trip to Europe. Holland is scheduled to meet with him, either to discuss a possible contract or to break the news that they're going in another direction. It's classy moves like that that pull players not named James Wizniewski to the Wings.
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