Now that the Wings have finished their roster, other than a small chance at trading for a forward capable of scoring 60+ points if the right situation presents itself, it's time for some predictions for the 2011-12 season.
Jiri Hudler will score at least 50 points. He managed 37 last season despite playing terrible, bouncing around the lines, spending part of the time playing with two grinders, and being a healthy scratch. An improved mental outlook and consistent ice time should boost him back up to the 50+ point plateau.
Pavel Datsyuk will win the Selke. Not much of a stretch here, as the biggest reason he didn't win last year is because he missed so many games. Datsyuk is the premier two way center in the NHL, and the only reason he's not one of the NHL's poster boys is that he's Russian and not flashy like Ovechkin.
Half of the Wings fan base will insist that Hudler is terrible, even while he's scoring his 50+ points. It doesn't matter what some players do, fans don't like them. Hudler does have limitations with his smurf-like stature and lack of speed, but he does play hard when he's on the game and his size doesn't prevent him from going into the hard areas of the ice. Granted, he's not very effective along the boards, but he does try.
Mike Babcock will give the Death Stare 682 times. In the first week. And at least one prospect will be scared by it.
Something will be said about the Wings' age at least 3 times in every national broadcast featuring them. Of course, the fact that Lidstrom is the only defenseman over the age of 32, and the majority of their forwards are in or are just coming into their prime years will be completely ignored. But Mike millbury, Pierre Maguire, and Barry Melrose have never let facts get int he way when it's time to predict the Wings' demise, why start now?
The Wings will make a trade to bring in an upgrade at at least one position by the trade deadline. This is the first time since the cap was implemented where the Wings haven't gone into the season at or near the cap. Some of the money needs to be set aside to bring back Kronwall, Stuart, Kindl, and their other pending free agents and sign Lidstrom's replacement, but Holland will have money to play with.
Brendan Smith will play in 20 games or so. If he plays well, fans, and possible Babcock, will say that he needs to be up full time RIGHT NOW! If he plays well, fans will wonder how he was rated so highly. Either way he will be sent back to Grand Rapids and will be a full time Wing in the '12-'13 season.
Filppula will have a breakout year and hit the 60 point mark. No, we really mean it this time. Seriously. OK, probably not, but it's getting to be a rite of the off season to predict a big year from the Finn. Either way, 40 points and solid 2-way play makes him a valuable, and often under-appreciated, member of the team.
There will be 6,294 "they should trade Hudler/Filppula/Bertuzzi" and 649 "Homer should retire" threads on each message board.
Detroit will win the Cup if they stay healthy. San Jose will be exposed as not as good as people think they are after trading so many players to bring in Havlat and Burns, the Blackhawks and Kings won't have the depth, and the Canucks will choke a round earlier than they did this past playoff.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Chris Osgood, Hall of Famer?
Now that it looks like Chris Osgood is officially ending his career as a professional hockey player, the debate on his worthiness for the Hall of Fame will begin in earnest with people coming down firmly on both sides of the issue.
Why he shouldn't be in the Hall:
He was never one of the three best goaltenders in the league, at least not for an extended period of time. He was overshadowed by goalies like Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, Ryan Miller, and others. Other than a couple of Jennings awards, which is a team award, he never won an individual award, and was only named to an All Star team three times in his career. He also spent most of his career playing for elite teams in Detroit where he was more of a passenger than a driving force in their success. Simply put, he doesn't pass the eye test, and the Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the best of the best. After all it's the Hall of FAME not the Hall of Really Good.
Why he should be in the Hall:
Most goalies in the Hall of Fame played on great teams, and all of them spent at least a good chunk of their career on good teams. Goalies simply don't put up wins or good numbers consistently if they play on bad teams. 401 wins, 50 shutouts, a 2.58 GAA, and a .905 save % compares favorably to the other goalies in the Hall. He didn't have the name of some of the other players like Hasek and Roy, but Osgood beat Roy and stepped in for Hasek when his game fell apart and outperformed him.
Too many people remember Osgood as the rookie crying in the locker room after the Sharks knocked the Wings out of the playoffs, and the goals from center ice. Not enough people remember the way that he always came back and upped his play after a bad goal or a bad game. We talk about mental toughness a lot, this guys struggles in the playoffs because he doesn't have it, this guy comes up big because he does have it. Osgood had it. In 129 playoff games, he posted a 2.09 GAA, .916 save % and shutout 15 teams. That's a better GAA and shutout per game ratio than Roy had, and compares to Hasek Brodeur, the three best goalies of Osgood's era. Individual awards are often won partly by reputation, and it's no shame to be the 4th best goalie over the course of your career when you're behind those players.
Was Steve Yzerman's accomplishments diminished because he was behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux most of his career? Would he have had the success and accolades that came later in his career if the trade with Ottawa had gone through? Of course not, and Osgood shouldn't be knocked down because he played on good teams. In both the '08 and '09 playoffs, Osgood was consistently one of the best players on the ice for both teams.
The argument that he doesn't meet the standards that the Hall should have doesn't hold water either. Other players who don't meet the eyeball test and who were carried by great teams (Glenn Anderson) and didn't win any individual awards (Dino Ciccarelli) have made it.
Osgood's numbers and accomplishments compare favorable to the people already in it. He will join them some day.
Why he shouldn't be in the Hall:
He was never one of the three best goaltenders in the league, at least not for an extended period of time. He was overshadowed by goalies like Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Ed Belfour, Ryan Miller, and others. Other than a couple of Jennings awards, which is a team award, he never won an individual award, and was only named to an All Star team three times in his career. He also spent most of his career playing for elite teams in Detroit where he was more of a passenger than a driving force in their success. Simply put, he doesn't pass the eye test, and the Hall of Fame should be reserved for only the best of the best. After all it's the Hall of FAME not the Hall of Really Good.
Why he should be in the Hall:
Most goalies in the Hall of Fame played on great teams, and all of them spent at least a good chunk of their career on good teams. Goalies simply don't put up wins or good numbers consistently if they play on bad teams. 401 wins, 50 shutouts, a 2.58 GAA, and a .905 save % compares favorably to the other goalies in the Hall. He didn't have the name of some of the other players like Hasek and Roy, but Osgood beat Roy and stepped in for Hasek when his game fell apart and outperformed him.
Too many people remember Osgood as the rookie crying in the locker room after the Sharks knocked the Wings out of the playoffs, and the goals from center ice. Not enough people remember the way that he always came back and upped his play after a bad goal or a bad game. We talk about mental toughness a lot, this guys struggles in the playoffs because he doesn't have it, this guy comes up big because he does have it. Osgood had it. In 129 playoff games, he posted a 2.09 GAA, .916 save % and shutout 15 teams. That's a better GAA and shutout per game ratio than Roy had, and compares to Hasek Brodeur, the three best goalies of Osgood's era. Individual awards are often won partly by reputation, and it's no shame to be the 4th best goalie over the course of your career when you're behind those players.
Was Steve Yzerman's accomplishments diminished because he was behind Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux most of his career? Would he have had the success and accolades that came later in his career if the trade with Ottawa had gone through? Of course not, and Osgood shouldn't be knocked down because he played on good teams. In both the '08 and '09 playoffs, Osgood was consistently one of the best players on the ice for both teams.
The argument that he doesn't meet the standards that the Hall should have doesn't hold water either. Other players who don't meet the eyeball test and who were carried by great teams (Glenn Anderson) and didn't win any individual awards (Dino Ciccarelli) have made it.
Osgood's numbers and accomplishments compare favorable to the people already in it. He will join them some day.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Who got better?
The Wings have basically brought back their team from last season, with the exception of Brian Rafalski (retired) Ruslan Salei (free agent) Mike Modano (free agent, possible retired) and the possible retirements of Kris Draper and Chris Osgood. They will be bringing in free agent defensemen Ian White and Mike Commodore and rookie forwards Jan Mursak and Cory Emmerton, and possibly a free agent goaltender to back up Jimmy Howard. All of these are fairly boring, low key moves for fans remembering players like Brett Hull, Chris Chelios, and Dominik Hasek coming to Detroit.
Several other Western Conference teams have had more exiting offseasons, bringing in, and in some cases shipping out, big names. Does that mean that they're better teams, or that better means that they passed the Wings? That remains to be seen. Thanks to capgeek.com for the salaries.
San Jose:
Gained: Martin Havlat, Brett Burns, Jim Vandermeer,
Lost: Devin Setoguchi, Dany Heatley, Ian White, Ben Eager, Jamal Mayers, Scott Nichol, Kent Huskins, Niclas Wallin, Kyle Wellwood (still unsigned)
Vandermeer for Huskins is basically a wash. Burns for White is an upgrade, assuming Burns concussion issues don't return. How big of an upgrade will depend on Burns health and how White performs playing for Detroit. Havlat for Heatley and Setoguchi, losing two top six forwards to get one back, is a big downgrade, at least in the regular season.
The Sharks are losing 74 goals from last year, including two forwards who were regulars on the penalty kill in Mayers and Nichol. The players they brought in scored 41 between them. There will be at least 2 other forwards added, and they have almost $5.6 million left in cap room. With couture replacing Setoguchi in the top six, the bottom six is weaker, and in the playoffs a team's third and fourth lines are often the difference in a series.
A large chunk of that will need to be set aside for raises that winger Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns will likely command this year when they become free agents. The transactions between the Sharks and Wild did land them a solid scoring winger in Havlat and a young up and coming defenseman in Burns, not to mention cap room they got from the Heatley for Havlat trade, but at the cost of losing Heatley, one of their better young forwards in Setoguchi, having to let Ian White walk away and sign in Detroit, as well as a first round pick and top prospect Charlie Coyle.
Some of that lost offense will be made up by Logan Couture and others hopefully stepping into bigger roles and producing more, and some will be negated by the improved defensive unit replacing White with Burns, but not all of it. At best, this is a slight upgrade after you take what they lost into account, and if Burns has more concussion issues or leaves as a free agent next summer -he will be unrestricted- it's a huge step back.
LA Kings:
Gained: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Colin Fraser
Lost: Wayne Simmonds, Michal Handzus, Ryan Smyth, Alex Ponikarovsky
Richards and Gagne are huge upgrades at forward, although losing top penalty killer Handzus will hurt them there. Increased production from young defensemen Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, assuming restricted free agent Daughty is re-signed, will give the blue line a boost. The Kings issues surface when you get beyond their top two lines and top pair defense. They got 82 points form top d-men Johnson and Doughty and 62 points from the other 7 players who played there last year. The Kings hope that Gagne can bounce back from injuries that made his goal totals dip to 17 goals each of the last two seasons after scoring 30+ four of the previous five seasons. Out of the remaining returning forwards beyond the projected top six, they only got 38 total goals. If the younger players in that group can't produce more, or if they can't bring in outside help, the Kings will be in trouble as it takes more offense than that to win the Cup.
Vancouver Canucks:
The Canucks return virtually their entire roster from the Western Conference Champs. The one major loss was defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, who saw his rights traded twice before signing with Buffalo. That loss will likely fore Alain Vigneault to play Keith Ballard, who was banishes to the pressbox for his lackluster play and apparent clashes with the coach, despite a relatively hefty salary cap hit.
The Canucks biggest issue could be in goal, where the highly paid Roberto Luongo is beginning the start of his new long term contract. They'll sink or swim with him since he is basically untradeable with that contract. If his play in the playoffs doesn't improve, they simply will not be able to win the Cup. Ditto for the Sedin twins who disappeared against Boston after being Hart contenders in the regular season. The Canucks are probably the most dangerous team to the wings chances of making it to the Cup finals.
Chicago Blackhawks:
Gained: Rostislav Olesz (and his bad contract), Andrew Brunette, Daniel Carcillo, Jamal Mayers, Steve Montador, Sean O'Donnell
Lost:: Brian Campbell (and his bad contract), Tomas Kopecky, Troy Brouwer, Jassen Cullimore, Jake Dowell, Chris Campolli (un-signed RFA)
It was another eventful offseason for the Hawks. The best news is seems to be losing Brian Campbells' big contract, one that he had no chance of earning, but it might not be as good of a deal as it looks on the surface. Because they had to take Rostislav Olesz's contract, with 3 years left and a cap hit of $3.125 mil per year, they get a forward who has never scored more than 30 points and only managed 17 last season. Although Campbell has failed to produce as much as was hoped offensively, he did lead the team in +/- last year and was a solid second pair defenseman. He is replaced by Montador, a player who has never scored more than 26 points and played under 20 minutes a game for Buffalo. Other than the increased cap space, this seems to be a push on the ice. Other than that, the offseason was about getting some cap room and shuffling role players.
Although the Redwings didn't make any moves, with improved health and improvements from several players, they should be a better team. These other teams made more moves for the most part, but they are not necessarily better teams because of it, they simply made more exciting moves.
Several other Western Conference teams have had more exiting offseasons, bringing in, and in some cases shipping out, big names. Does that mean that they're better teams, or that better means that they passed the Wings? That remains to be seen. Thanks to capgeek.com for the salaries.
San Jose:
Gained: Martin Havlat, Brett Burns, Jim Vandermeer,
Lost: Devin Setoguchi, Dany Heatley, Ian White, Ben Eager, Jamal Mayers, Scott Nichol, Kent Huskins, Niclas Wallin, Kyle Wellwood (still unsigned)
Vandermeer for Huskins is basically a wash. Burns for White is an upgrade, assuming Burns concussion issues don't return. How big of an upgrade will depend on Burns health and how White performs playing for Detroit. Havlat for Heatley and Setoguchi, losing two top six forwards to get one back, is a big downgrade, at least in the regular season.
The Sharks are losing 74 goals from last year, including two forwards who were regulars on the penalty kill in Mayers and Nichol. The players they brought in scored 41 between them. There will be at least 2 other forwards added, and they have almost $5.6 million left in cap room. With couture replacing Setoguchi in the top six, the bottom six is weaker, and in the playoffs a team's third and fourth lines are often the difference in a series.
A large chunk of that will need to be set aside for raises that winger Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns will likely command this year when they become free agents. The transactions between the Sharks and Wild did land them a solid scoring winger in Havlat and a young up and coming defenseman in Burns, not to mention cap room they got from the Heatley for Havlat trade, but at the cost of losing Heatley, one of their better young forwards in Setoguchi, having to let Ian White walk away and sign in Detroit, as well as a first round pick and top prospect Charlie Coyle.
Some of that lost offense will be made up by Logan Couture and others hopefully stepping into bigger roles and producing more, and some will be negated by the improved defensive unit replacing White with Burns, but not all of it. At best, this is a slight upgrade after you take what they lost into account, and if Burns has more concussion issues or leaves as a free agent next summer -he will be unrestricted- it's a huge step back.
LA Kings:
Gained: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Colin Fraser
Lost: Wayne Simmonds, Michal Handzus, Ryan Smyth, Alex Ponikarovsky
Richards and Gagne are huge upgrades at forward, although losing top penalty killer Handzus will hurt them there. Increased production from young defensemen Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, assuming restricted free agent Daughty is re-signed, will give the blue line a boost. The Kings issues surface when you get beyond their top two lines and top pair defense. They got 82 points form top d-men Johnson and Doughty and 62 points from the other 7 players who played there last year. The Kings hope that Gagne can bounce back from injuries that made his goal totals dip to 17 goals each of the last two seasons after scoring 30+ four of the previous five seasons. Out of the remaining returning forwards beyond the projected top six, they only got 38 total goals. If the younger players in that group can't produce more, or if they can't bring in outside help, the Kings will be in trouble as it takes more offense than that to win the Cup.
Vancouver Canucks:
The Canucks return virtually their entire roster from the Western Conference Champs. The one major loss was defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, who saw his rights traded twice before signing with Buffalo. That loss will likely fore Alain Vigneault to play Keith Ballard, who was banishes to the pressbox for his lackluster play and apparent clashes with the coach, despite a relatively hefty salary cap hit.
The Canucks biggest issue could be in goal, where the highly paid Roberto Luongo is beginning the start of his new long term contract. They'll sink or swim with him since he is basically untradeable with that contract. If his play in the playoffs doesn't improve, they simply will not be able to win the Cup. Ditto for the Sedin twins who disappeared against Boston after being Hart contenders in the regular season. The Canucks are probably the most dangerous team to the wings chances of making it to the Cup finals.
Chicago Blackhawks:
Gained: Rostislav Olesz (and his bad contract), Andrew Brunette, Daniel Carcillo, Jamal Mayers, Steve Montador, Sean O'Donnell
Lost:: Brian Campbell (and his bad contract), Tomas Kopecky, Troy Brouwer, Jassen Cullimore, Jake Dowell, Chris Campolli (un-signed RFA)
It was another eventful offseason for the Hawks. The best news is seems to be losing Brian Campbells' big contract, one that he had no chance of earning, but it might not be as good of a deal as it looks on the surface. Because they had to take Rostislav Olesz's contract, with 3 years left and a cap hit of $3.125 mil per year, they get a forward who has never scored more than 30 points and only managed 17 last season. Although Campbell has failed to produce as much as was hoped offensively, he did lead the team in +/- last year and was a solid second pair defenseman. He is replaced by Montador, a player who has never scored more than 26 points and played under 20 minutes a game for Buffalo. Other than the increased cap space, this seems to be a push on the ice. Other than that, the offseason was about getting some cap room and shuffling role players.
Although the Redwings didn't make any moves, with improved health and improvements from several players, they should be a better team. These other teams made more moves for the most part, but they are not necessarily better teams because of it, they simply made more exciting moves.
Friday, July 15, 2011
How does this year's projected roster compare with past Cup winners?
Can the Wings win the Stanley Cup this coming season? The simple answer is that yes, assuming they'r relatively healthy they will have as good or a better chance than any other team. There are some people who insist that 2 straight years of losing to the Sharks, a team who allegedly got better (they didn't, but that's another discussion) means that the Wings need to make at least one big addition in order to win the Cup. I thought it would be interesting to compare this year's projected roster, which is basically set except for the #2 goalie spot, to the Cup winners from '97, '98, '02, and '08.
1997:
An early season trade that sent an aging Paul Coffey, an unhappy Keith Primeau, and some draft picks to Hartford for Brendan Shanahan and defenseman Brian Glynn gave the Wings one of the premier power forwards in the league. Shanahan, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov, Darren McCarty, and Slave Kozlov were the leading scorers among the forwards. Joey Kocur returned to the team mid season and teamed with Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby to form a tenacious checking line, eventually called the Grind Line. Doug Brown, Tomas Sandstrom (deadline deal), Marty Lapointe, a young Tomas Holstrom, and Time Taylor rounded out the forwards. Nick Lidstrom, Vladimir Konstantinov, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse, Aaron Ward and Jamie Pushor were the defensemen. Mike Vernon and Chris Osgood shared the net.
Yzerman and Shanahan led the team is scoring with 87 and 85 points respectively, followed by Fedorov with 63. Lidstrom and Konstantinov led the defense and their contrasting styles drove opponents batty trying to figure out how to counter it. The addition of Murphy, whose career was rejuvenated by the trade, allowed the team to split up Lidstrom and Konstantinov to form 2 shut down defense pairings to go along with the checking of the Grind line.
1998:
The Wings had to overcome the tragic loss of Konstantinov due to a limo accident days after they won the Cup. Fetisov was also in the limo, but was able to return to the ice. A season long holdout by Sergei Fedorov, only broken by the Hurricanes front loaded offer, was another distractaction the team needed to overcome. Yzerman led the team with 69 points that year, Lidstrom was second on the team with 59 points in his true breakout year. Pushor was lost in the expansion draft, and the team brought in another former Leaf in Jamie Macoun and Dmitri Mironov from Anaheim to solidify the back end. The Grind Line was even better, and center Kris Draper played over 15 minutes a game as a disruptive force at even strength and a top end penalty killer. In the playoffs, Mironov lost his job to youngster Anders Eriksson, and the Wings went with Lidstrom, Murphy, Macoun, Rouse, Fetisov and Eriksson on defense, getting the most ice time in that order. Holmstrom fell into a PP specialist role, getting about 3 minutes of his 11 he played per game there. He also managed 19 points in that run.
2002:
The year of the Hall of Famers. Shanahan, Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Larionov, Chelios, Lidstrom, Hasek, and the debut of Russian magician Pavel Datsyuk. Add defensemen Steve Duchesne, Fredrick Olausson, and rookie Jiri Fischer, plus Devereaux (playing with Hull and Datsyuk on the 2 Kids and a Goat line), agitator Sean Avery, Larionov, and the ever present and irritating Grind Line, and this could be one of the best lineups ever, at elast by sheer weight of their accomplishments. Despite that, no player averaged close to a point per game except Yzerman who had 48 points in 53 games. Shanahan and Fedorov led the team with 75 and 68 points. Lidstrom repeated as the Norris winner, Chris Chelios proved that age is just a number, and Fischer, Duchesne, Olausson, Slegr, Max Kuznetsov, Jesse Wallin and the ill-fated Uwe Krupp rounded out the defense. In the playoffs, Scotty Bowman lost confidence in Slegr and Krupp and rookies Wallin and Kuznetsov and dreed only 5 defensemen for all 23 games. Lidstrom averaged a stunning 31:10 minutes a game during the Cup run on the way to a much deserved Conn Smythe.
2008:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg were far and away the scoring leaders, both topping the 90 point mark. Hudler and Cleary added 42, and Holmstrom and Smauelsson both had 40. Franzen added 27 goals, and Lidstrom and Rafalski led the defense. Dallas Drake returned to Detroit for one last Cup run and teamed with Draper and Maltby to form another strong checking line. Hudler, Holmstrom, Samuelsson, Filppula, Cleary, and Kopecky rounded out the forward unit. Brad Stuart teamed with Kronwall to form a solid second defense unit, and Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja rounded out the defense unit.
2011-12:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg remain the top forwards. Bertuzzi, Filppula, Hudler, Cleary, Franzen, and Holmstrom give the team 8 forwards who are more than capable of topping the 40 point mark, the same number of forwards they had who approached or surpassed 40 points in 08 and two more than they had in 98. Lidstrom, Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Stuart, Kindl and Commodore as a group are as good or better than any of the units on the previous winners, with the exception of the '97 team. They are certainly better than the '02 defense, which lacked depth to the point where they only dressed five defensemen. The bottom three of Commodore, Kindl and Ericsson are better than an aging Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja from the '08 team, which makes up for at least part of the difference between the top four D on each team. Darren Helm and whoever out of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak, or Emmerton plays with him should be as disruptive as the Grind Line in its various incarnations. That line, along with whatever combinations Babcock uses for the other three lines, should give the Wings 3 scoring lines and a superb checking line, just like the 4 Cup teams had. Jimmy Howard should be even better with another year of experience and a boosted confidence level of knowing he is the #1 guy in net and is capable of stealing playoff games.
In short, this team compares favorably to every other team that the Wings have iced since they started their run of dominance. As long as they stay relatively healthy, there is no reason they can't win the Stanley Cup.
1997:
An early season trade that sent an aging Paul Coffey, an unhappy Keith Primeau, and some draft picks to Hartford for Brendan Shanahan and defenseman Brian Glynn gave the Wings one of the premier power forwards in the league. Shanahan, Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov, Darren McCarty, and Slave Kozlov were the leading scorers among the forwards. Joey Kocur returned to the team mid season and teamed with Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby to form a tenacious checking line, eventually called the Grind Line. Doug Brown, Tomas Sandstrom (deadline deal), Marty Lapointe, a young Tomas Holstrom, and Time Taylor rounded out the forwards. Nick Lidstrom, Vladimir Konstantinov, Larry Murphy, Bob Rouse, Aaron Ward and Jamie Pushor were the defensemen. Mike Vernon and Chris Osgood shared the net.
Yzerman and Shanahan led the team is scoring with 87 and 85 points respectively, followed by Fedorov with 63. Lidstrom and Konstantinov led the defense and their contrasting styles drove opponents batty trying to figure out how to counter it. The addition of Murphy, whose career was rejuvenated by the trade, allowed the team to split up Lidstrom and Konstantinov to form 2 shut down defense pairings to go along with the checking of the Grind line.
1998:
The Wings had to overcome the tragic loss of Konstantinov due to a limo accident days after they won the Cup. Fetisov was also in the limo, but was able to return to the ice. A season long holdout by Sergei Fedorov, only broken by the Hurricanes front loaded offer, was another distractaction the team needed to overcome. Yzerman led the team with 69 points that year, Lidstrom was second on the team with 59 points in his true breakout year. Pushor was lost in the expansion draft, and the team brought in another former Leaf in Jamie Macoun and Dmitri Mironov from Anaheim to solidify the back end. The Grind Line was even better, and center Kris Draper played over 15 minutes a game as a disruptive force at even strength and a top end penalty killer. In the playoffs, Mironov lost his job to youngster Anders Eriksson, and the Wings went with Lidstrom, Murphy, Macoun, Rouse, Fetisov and Eriksson on defense, getting the most ice time in that order. Holmstrom fell into a PP specialist role, getting about 3 minutes of his 11 he played per game there. He also managed 19 points in that run.
2002:
The year of the Hall of Famers. Shanahan, Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Larionov, Chelios, Lidstrom, Hasek, and the debut of Russian magician Pavel Datsyuk. Add defensemen Steve Duchesne, Fredrick Olausson, and rookie Jiri Fischer, plus Devereaux (playing with Hull and Datsyuk on the 2 Kids and a Goat line), agitator Sean Avery, Larionov, and the ever present and irritating Grind Line, and this could be one of the best lineups ever, at elast by sheer weight of their accomplishments. Despite that, no player averaged close to a point per game except Yzerman who had 48 points in 53 games. Shanahan and Fedorov led the team with 75 and 68 points. Lidstrom repeated as the Norris winner, Chris Chelios proved that age is just a number, and Fischer, Duchesne, Olausson, Slegr, Max Kuznetsov, Jesse Wallin and the ill-fated Uwe Krupp rounded out the defense. In the playoffs, Scotty Bowman lost confidence in Slegr and Krupp and rookies Wallin and Kuznetsov and dreed only 5 defensemen for all 23 games. Lidstrom averaged a stunning 31:10 minutes a game during the Cup run on the way to a much deserved Conn Smythe.
2008:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg were far and away the scoring leaders, both topping the 90 point mark. Hudler and Cleary added 42, and Holmstrom and Smauelsson both had 40. Franzen added 27 goals, and Lidstrom and Rafalski led the defense. Dallas Drake returned to Detroit for one last Cup run and teamed with Draper and Maltby to form another strong checking line. Hudler, Holmstrom, Samuelsson, Filppula, Cleary, and Kopecky rounded out the forward unit. Brad Stuart teamed with Kronwall to form a solid second defense unit, and Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja rounded out the defense unit.
2011-12:
Datsyuk and Zetterberg remain the top forwards. Bertuzzi, Filppula, Hudler, Cleary, Franzen, and Holmstrom give the team 8 forwards who are more than capable of topping the 40 point mark, the same number of forwards they had who approached or surpassed 40 points in 08 and two more than they had in 98. Lidstrom, Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Stuart, Kindl and Commodore as a group are as good or better than any of the units on the previous winners, with the exception of the '97 team. They are certainly better than the '02 defense, which lacked depth to the point where they only dressed five defensemen. The bottom three of Commodore, Kindl and Ericsson are better than an aging Chelios, Lebda, and Lilja from the '08 team, which makes up for at least part of the difference between the top four D on each team. Darren Helm and whoever out of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak, or Emmerton plays with him should be as disruptive as the Grind Line in its various incarnations. That line, along with whatever combinations Babcock uses for the other three lines, should give the Wings 3 scoring lines and a superb checking line, just like the 4 Cup teams had. Jimmy Howard should be even better with another year of experience and a boosted confidence level of knowing he is the #1 guy in net and is capable of stealing playoff games.
In short, this team compares favorably to every other team that the Wings have iced since they started their run of dominance. As long as they stay relatively healthy, there is no reason they can't win the Stanley Cup.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The importance of a checking line center; why Darren Helm won't be a top 6 winger
There has been recent discussion among Red Wings fans that speedster Darren Helm should be moved to wing playing with Pavel Datsyuk and/or Henrik Zetterberg. The argument is that his speed could open up the ice for his linemates, and he would crash the net to clean up the garbage around the crease. He could do that. So can Dan Cleary, Tomas Holmstrom, and to an extent Todd Bertuzzi fill the grinder roles on those lines. Valterri Filppula an Jiri Hudler also fill top 6 scoring line roles.
Then there is the talent issue. Helm is one of the fastest people on ice outside of Olympic speed skaters. He is a tenacious checker who's willing to hit anything that moves and can change the outcome of the game like he did against Phoenix in the playoffs with his bodily bombardment of the Coyotes' defense, particularly Ed Jovanovski. His speed leads to several breakaways over the season. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the hands or the vision to be a scorer. Draft position isn't everything, but when he was drafted he was projected as a checking line center provided he could get stronger based on his hands, and he has done nothing since turning pro to suggest he could be a goal scorer.
The biggest reason to keep Helm on the checking line has to do with what's best for the team. Fans tend to judge a player's value on the stats that they put up. A forward who scores 45 points in a scoring role must be more valuable than a player who scored 30 points playing a checking role. In reality that's not true. A 10 point boost for Helm is simply not as important to the team's success as keeping him on a line where his job is to go in, hit people, disrupt the other team's break out, and be a penalty killer. During the last four Stanley Cups in '97, '98, '02, and '08, the Wings have had a checking line center who played in the 15:30 a night range. Kris Draper's tenaciousness on the forecheck, ability to disrupt the attack coming the other way and play shut down defense against a scoring line, freeing up one of the Wings scoring lines from having to match up against a top line were all important factors in those Cup runs. Helm isn't there quite yet, but he seems to be well on his way. Those type of centers aren't as common as some people think, and when you have one they're as valuable as a 25 goal scorer. Helm centering two of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak or Emmerton is a much better checking line than Abdelkader or Emmerton centering two of those other bottom six forwards. Helm on the second line scoring 40 or 45 points isn't more effective than Danny Cleary or Todd Bertuzzi on the second line scoring 45 points.
Simply put, wingers who can put up 40-45 points are common. Checking line centers who can do what Helm can do are not. If a player is excellent in one role but only average in another, any coach who should keep his job keeps the player in the role that he excels in.
Then there is the talent issue. Helm is one of the fastest people on ice outside of Olympic speed skaters. He is a tenacious checker who's willing to hit anything that moves and can change the outcome of the game like he did against Phoenix in the playoffs with his bodily bombardment of the Coyotes' defense, particularly Ed Jovanovski. His speed leads to several breakaways over the season. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the hands or the vision to be a scorer. Draft position isn't everything, but when he was drafted he was projected as a checking line center provided he could get stronger based on his hands, and he has done nothing since turning pro to suggest he could be a goal scorer.
The biggest reason to keep Helm on the checking line has to do with what's best for the team. Fans tend to judge a player's value on the stats that they put up. A forward who scores 45 points in a scoring role must be more valuable than a player who scored 30 points playing a checking role. In reality that's not true. A 10 point boost for Helm is simply not as important to the team's success as keeping him on a line where his job is to go in, hit people, disrupt the other team's break out, and be a penalty killer. During the last four Stanley Cups in '97, '98, '02, and '08, the Wings have had a checking line center who played in the 15:30 a night range. Kris Draper's tenaciousness on the forecheck, ability to disrupt the attack coming the other way and play shut down defense against a scoring line, freeing up one of the Wings scoring lines from having to match up against a top line were all important factors in those Cup runs. Helm isn't there quite yet, but he seems to be well on his way. Those type of centers aren't as common as some people think, and when you have one they're as valuable as a 25 goal scorer. Helm centering two of Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller, Mursak or Emmerton is a much better checking line than Abdelkader or Emmerton centering two of those other bottom six forwards. Helm on the second line scoring 40 or 45 points isn't more effective than Danny Cleary or Todd Bertuzzi on the second line scoring 45 points.
Simply put, wingers who can put up 40-45 points are common. Checking line centers who can do what Helm can do are not. If a player is excellent in one role but only average in another, any coach who should keep his job keeps the player in the role that he excels in.
Monday, July 11, 2011
10 Possible backup goalies
The one spot that Ken Holland hasn't been able to fill this off season is the #2 goalie job behind Jimmy Howard. This isn't much of a surprise though. Most goalies, at least the good ones, want to go to a team where they have at least a chance of being the #1 goalie if they play well. At minimum, they want to go to a team where they'll probably play more than 20 or 25 games. In his two full seasons as Red Wings goalie, Howard has played in 61 and 62 games, winning 37 each season. Part of that has been because of Chris Osgood's heath issues, but part of it is from Mike Babcock riding the hot goalie. Howard is young enough to handle the workload, so his backup could be limited to not many games unless he misses time due to an injury. however, most teams have their goalie situation covered by now, and players may be looking to get whatever NHL job they can find.
The Wings have signed Joey MacDonald to a contract, presumably to play in Grand Rapids and be the call up when they need a spare goalie (thank to Lindy at redwingscentral.com for the confirmation for that). This gives the Wings some insurance in case they can't find someone as MacDonald did a serviceable job last year, posting a .917 save % and 2.58 GAA in 15 games, 9 of which he started. There are a few players left who could help Detroit and might be better than MacDonald, though, and the Wings will certainly be on the phones with agents working out a deal.
Chris Osgood- Ozzie is a potential Hall of Fame player, racking up 400 career wins and winning two Stanley Cups as a starter. He's had several injury issues however, and the Wings might prefer to find someone who is less of a risk. The MacDonald signing gives them insurance if they do bring Osgood back, however, and his relationship with GM Ken Holland cold come into play here to at least earn a shot at the #2 job in a training camp competition.
Ty Conkllin- Conklin had one of the best seasons of his career in Detroit, and might be willing to come back to the team after playing the last two years for a sub-par Blues team. However, he's a 35-year-old career backup coming off a horrendous season. It's hard to say how much of that is due to playing behind a porous defense and how much of it is age catching up to him.
Pascal Leclaire- He went from a future all-star to terrible. Like Conklin, that could be a product of playing for less than stellar teams in Columbus and Ottawa, but at this point his confidence could be shaken to the point of no return. He could be an interesting reclamation product if he's willing to come to Detroit to be the #2 goalie, although he may have to accept a two-way contract.
Marty Turco- The veteran goalie has had a good career, except when he's played Detroit. He could still be a good backup, but may be looking at retirement rather than spend another year on the bench charting faceoffs.
Patrick Lalime- Another goalie who started off hot and then had his career derail. He was fantastic until the lockout, posting sub 2.5 GAAs five straight years, including 2 seasons under 2.3 GAA. Since the lockout he's been relegated to back up duty after a disastrous year with St. Louis. It's unlikely to think that he could revive his career and post his pre-lockout numbers, but he could be a solid option.
Martin Gerber- Gerber has bounced around the professional leagues and was buried on the Oilers farm team last season. He did put up solid numbers in the AHL and posted a 1.30 GAA in the 3 games he played for Edmonton. He should be able to give the Wings a chance to win the nights he plays if they settle on him, and at this point of his career he won't be offered a chance to start anywhere else.
Ray Emery- Injuries and attitude have derailed his career, but he looks to have both of those issues under control. He may be looking for a team that will give him a chance to play more than he would in Detroit, but as the summer progresses he may not have any options except as a #2. Emery could be the best option in free agency if he's willing to play second fiddle to Howard for a year.
Evgeni Nabokov-The Wings tried to get him last year but the Islanders claimed him on waivers. He doesn't want to play for them, however, and GM Garth Snow may be looking to trade him. A low round draft pick could be enough to get him if that's the case.
Michael Leighton- Philly has 3 goalies and not a lot of cap space after giving Ilya Bryzgalov a mind boggling 9 year, $51 million contract. The 30 year old has had an up and down career, but did a solid job for the Flyers 2 seasons ago when it was his turn in their musical goalie rotation. He could be a good fit for the Wings and, like Nabokov, could possibly be had for a mid to low round draft pick or mid level prospect.
Joey MacDonald- The journeyman goalie did well when called upon lest season. He is by no means a starting caliber goalie, but could do an adequate job in net for 20 or 25 games to give Howard an occasional break. He only had two truly bad games, one of which was the 10-3 collapse against St. Louis at the end of March. That was a complete team wide collapse so it's hard to put any of that on any one player. Other than that, one of his losses and an OT loss came after he stepped in for a struggling Howard in a blowout, only to have the Wings come back, tie it, and then lose after MacDonald gave up only one goal.
The Wings have signed Joey MacDonald to a contract, presumably to play in Grand Rapids and be the call up when they need a spare goalie (thank to Lindy at redwingscentral.com for the confirmation for that). This gives the Wings some insurance in case they can't find someone as MacDonald did a serviceable job last year, posting a .917 save % and 2.58 GAA in 15 games, 9 of which he started. There are a few players left who could help Detroit and might be better than MacDonald, though, and the Wings will certainly be on the phones with agents working out a deal.
Chris Osgood- Ozzie is a potential Hall of Fame player, racking up 400 career wins and winning two Stanley Cups as a starter. He's had several injury issues however, and the Wings might prefer to find someone who is less of a risk. The MacDonald signing gives them insurance if they do bring Osgood back, however, and his relationship with GM Ken Holland cold come into play here to at least earn a shot at the #2 job in a training camp competition.
Ty Conkllin- Conklin had one of the best seasons of his career in Detroit, and might be willing to come back to the team after playing the last two years for a sub-par Blues team. However, he's a 35-year-old career backup coming off a horrendous season. It's hard to say how much of that is due to playing behind a porous defense and how much of it is age catching up to him.
Pascal Leclaire- He went from a future all-star to terrible. Like Conklin, that could be a product of playing for less than stellar teams in Columbus and Ottawa, but at this point his confidence could be shaken to the point of no return. He could be an interesting reclamation product if he's willing to come to Detroit to be the #2 goalie, although he may have to accept a two-way contract.
Marty Turco- The veteran goalie has had a good career, except when he's played Detroit. He could still be a good backup, but may be looking at retirement rather than spend another year on the bench charting faceoffs.
Patrick Lalime- Another goalie who started off hot and then had his career derail. He was fantastic until the lockout, posting sub 2.5 GAAs five straight years, including 2 seasons under 2.3 GAA. Since the lockout he's been relegated to back up duty after a disastrous year with St. Louis. It's unlikely to think that he could revive his career and post his pre-lockout numbers, but he could be a solid option.
Martin Gerber- Gerber has bounced around the professional leagues and was buried on the Oilers farm team last season. He did put up solid numbers in the AHL and posted a 1.30 GAA in the 3 games he played for Edmonton. He should be able to give the Wings a chance to win the nights he plays if they settle on him, and at this point of his career he won't be offered a chance to start anywhere else.
Ray Emery- Injuries and attitude have derailed his career, but he looks to have both of those issues under control. He may be looking for a team that will give him a chance to play more than he would in Detroit, but as the summer progresses he may not have any options except as a #2. Emery could be the best option in free agency if he's willing to play second fiddle to Howard for a year.
Evgeni Nabokov-The Wings tried to get him last year but the Islanders claimed him on waivers. He doesn't want to play for them, however, and GM Garth Snow may be looking to trade him. A low round draft pick could be enough to get him if that's the case.
Michael Leighton- Philly has 3 goalies and not a lot of cap space after giving Ilya Bryzgalov a mind boggling 9 year, $51 million contract. The 30 year old has had an up and down career, but did a solid job for the Flyers 2 seasons ago when it was his turn in their musical goalie rotation. He could be a good fit for the Wings and, like Nabokov, could possibly be had for a mid to low round draft pick or mid level prospect.
Joey MacDonald- The journeyman goalie did well when called upon lest season. He is by no means a starting caliber goalie, but could do an adequate job in net for 20 or 25 games to give Howard an occasional break. He only had two truly bad games, one of which was the 10-3 collapse against St. Louis at the end of March. That was a complete team wide collapse so it's hard to put any of that on any one player. Other than that, one of his losses and an OT loss came after he stepped in for a struggling Howard in a blowout, only to have the Wings come back, tie it, and then lose after MacDonald gave up only one goal.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Don't hold you breath waiting for Smith
Ken Holland has repeatedly said that he expects young defenseman Brendan Smith to compete for a spot in the lineup in training camp. I have just one question. How?
The top three spots are secure with Nick Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Nik Kronwall. The other spot in the top four will be filled by either Jonathan Ericsson or Ian White. The loser of that competition will pair with either Jakub Kindl or Mike Commodore for the 3rd pair, and the loser of THAT competition will be slotted as the seventh defenseman.
We know there will be injuries, and it's probable that Smith will get some action for the Wings this season as a call up. But making the team out of camp? I don't see how that happens unless they make a trade. If they trade Kindl as part of a package to get a top 6 and don't get an NHL defenseman in return, Smith might beat our Commodore for a regular spot in the lineup. Unless that happens, however, Griffins fans will be seeing a lot of Smith in Van Andel Arena this season.
The top three spots are secure with Nick Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Nik Kronwall. The other spot in the top four will be filled by either Jonathan Ericsson or Ian White. The loser of that competition will pair with either Jakub Kindl or Mike Commodore for the 3rd pair, and the loser of THAT competition will be slotted as the seventh defenseman.
We know there will be injuries, and it's probable that Smith will get some action for the Wings this season as a call up. But making the team out of camp? I don't see how that happens unless they make a trade. If they trade Kindl as part of a package to get a top 6 and don't get an NHL defenseman in return, Smith might beat our Commodore for a regular spot in the lineup. Unless that happens, however, Griffins fans will be seeing a lot of Smith in Van Andel Arena this season.
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